294
FXUS63 KMKX 081855
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
155 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
- RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT (70-90%). TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX, THEN
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN(40-60%).
- ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, BECOMING LESS GUSTY BUT REMAINING STEADY THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID-40S. A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
WINDS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BRING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. CURRENTLY FORECASTED HIGHS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE RECORDS
IN MADISON AND MILWAUKEE.
MONDAY NIGHT, A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AND BRING IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-30S TO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WILL REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED HAIL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT, BUT LFC IS AROUND 700 MB WITH A STOUT STABLE LAYER BELOW
THE WARM NOSE DUE TO CHILLY WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT
ANTICIPATING SURFACE BASED STORMS, AND LARGELY ANTICIPATING ONLY
SMALL HAIL (LESS THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER) AT THIS TIME. AS LOW
PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL. SOME WRAP-AROUND WARM
AIR LINGERING AROUND 850 MB MAY ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN, BUT WILL DEPEND ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING. OUTSIDE OF A NARROW REGION OF 850 MB
LINGERING WARM AIR, EXPECTING A CLEAN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
WEDNESDAY MORNING, COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION, WITH AN INCREASING DEPTH OF COLDER AIR INTRUDING
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS COLDER AIR WILL SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO BE WET AND SLUSHY,
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
DAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME, GIVEN
THE WEAKER NATURE OF THE FGEN OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN END WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL IN
ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THEN RETURN UPON A WARM
ADVECTION WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWOODS OF THE STATE.
BEYOND, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN ON SATURDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
RAIN/SNOW MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH
DETAILS ON THE STORM TRACK REMAIN MURKY AT THIS TIME. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
MONDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE GUSTS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND
12-14 KT. LLWS ALSO DEVELOPS AS GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE THE SURFACE INVERSION
WHITTLES AWAY AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
LOW PRESSURE OF 28.9 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR A FEW LINGERING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.1 INCHES PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEARSHORE REGIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER AND VARIABLE WINDS,
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES THEN DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TUESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE EJECTS EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY. GALES ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 AM
MONDAY.
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