649
FXUS63 KMKX 110026
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
726 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH COVERAGE PEAKING BETWEEN 4-10 PM. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, PARTICULARLY ALONG & SOUTH OF I-94 AND
US-18.
- AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN & FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAIN
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
(PARTICULARLY 3-10 AM) TO THE NORTH & WEST OF THE MILWAUKEE
METRO. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS
MARQUETTE, GREEN LAKE, FOND DU LAC, AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES,
WHERE LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE.
- QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW REMAINS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING & AFTERNOON (~10 AM - 4 PM), WITH SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF AN INCH.
- HIGH PRECIP CHANCES (65-85%) THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH
EXPECTATIONS FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT IS LOWER. SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 700 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO STRONG SHEAR WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED CONCERNS FOR LARGE HAIL. STORMS HAVE FIRED NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TRACKING INTO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RISK FOR STORMS WILL LEAVE THE CWA LIKELY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN THE RISK TURNS TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN WHICH MAY LIKELY
COME IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING BUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME MOISTURE. THE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT MAY BE LIMITED BY THE ROAD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THEN ON
THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE TROWAL EXPECT SOME SNOW AS
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING; WILL BE MONITORING FOR
BLOSSOMING ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE 4-10 PM TIME FRAME AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES INTO THE AREA. 18Z UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS
FROM ILX AND DVN CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(~8+ C/KM), WHICH ARE LIKELY TO ADVECT TOWARD THE US-18 AND I-94
CORRIDORS PRIOR TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. COMBINED WITH
AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR (~50+ KTS), WILL THUS BE LOOKING AT AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL AT LEAST INITIALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR MID-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES, WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY FLOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN DEVELOPING STORMS. ANTICIPATE THAT
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 & US-18
CORRIDORS, WHERE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL ARRIVE EARLIEST
& BE HIGHEST IN MAGNITUDE. A STOUT INVERSION/VERY STABLE NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL, THOUGH
TRENDS WILL NEVERTHELESS BE MONITORED. KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST &
HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING, PARTICULARLY IF PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. EXPECT NEW RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 0.25-0.5" RANGE, WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TO 1" POSSIBLE WHERE ANY HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING: CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL WANE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE/AFFILIATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PIVOTS EAST OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE LOSS OF DEEPER ASCENT, RESIDUAL
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSLATE TO DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FROM PREDAWN THROUGH EARLY
MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL PEAKING DURING THE ~3-9 AM TIME FRAME. WITH
COLD ADVECTION BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE SURFACE, COULD THUS SEE
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREEPING IN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD OF DRIZZLE, LEADING TO SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MILWAUKEE AREA, WHERE COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SOONER. DESPITE MILD ROAD TEMPERATURES FROM
THE RECENT WARM UP, DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR LIGHT ICING IMPACTS ON
ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUB-FREEZING THROUGH A LARGER
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE THUS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SAID LIGHT ICING IMPACTS IN MARQUETTE, GREEN LAKE, FOND
DU LAC, AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES BETWEEN 1 AM AND 1 PM. WITH ICING
IMPACTS WANING BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAY ULTIMATELY BE ABLE TO
LET THIS ADVISORY GO EARLIER THAN THE SCHEDULED 1 PM CDT EXPIRATION,
WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING TRENDS DICTATING THE FINAL DECISION. BUDGET A
FEW EXTRA MINUTES OF TRAVEL TIME IF PLANNING TO BE ON THE ROADS
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
MILWAUKEE AREA.
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: A BAND OF 850-
700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING
DEEP ENOUGH LIFT FOR CLOUD ICE & A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT AN INITIALLY WET/SLUSHY SNOW CHARACTER, TRENDING DRIER
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE RATES IN THE 0.25"/0.5" PER HOUR,
PARTICULARLY DIRECTLY BENEATH THE FRONTOGENESIS, THOUGH PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME OF SAID RATES IN ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THUS EXPECTING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR OR BELOW
A HALF INCH IN THE WEDNESDAY SNOW. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY
CHANGES THROUGH TONIGHT.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THESE
SKY AND WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON,
PUSHING HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 40S MOST
PLACES.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, REACHING NORTHERN LAKE
HURON BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST LOW TRACK LINES UP
FAIRLY WELL WITH THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS DETERMINISTIC TRACKS AND
ENSEMBLE AVERAGES, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN THU EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH A BRIEF MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW POSSIBLE
EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE SYSTEM IS PULLING AWAY. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES
ON THE HIGH END (70-90%) GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS
BACKED UP BY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 24 HOUR MEASURABLE PRECIP VIA
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES
THROUGH THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY THU NIGHT, WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD APPROACH/HIT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
IF THIS SYSTEM PANS OUT AS LATEST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.
DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE LIKELY LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES (MAINLY SNOW).
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER FOR LOCATIONS NORTH/WEST
OF THE LOW TRACK. AS IS COMMON WITH DEEPENING/PHASING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS, THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND TIMING OF
THE PHASING, WHICH WILL IMPACT WHERE THE SWATH OF SNOW SETS UP.
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MSLP AVERAGES TAKE THE LOW OVER OR
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CHICAGO, A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SNOW ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS A PRETTY WIDE SPREAD
IN INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THOUGH, AND THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL
DAYS OUT, SO CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION
REMAINS ON THE LOWER END FOR NOW. THIS STORM WILL BE WORTH KEEPING
AN EYE ON THOUGH.
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 725 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
INITIALLY THE AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE RISK FOR
STRONGER STORMS IS PRIMARILY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST WI.
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WITH RAIN
STILL EXPECTED. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME ICE BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ROAD TEMPS AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BUT THE RISK IS HIGHEST TOWARD CENTRAL WI WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST GET TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
THEN SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO A HALF INCH
POSSIBLE FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SYSTEM PUSHES OUT. CIGS WILL LARGELY BE IFR TO LIFR THOUGH
STARTING LARGELY MVFR. VSBYS WILL LARGELY BE MVFR THOUGH PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN, DENSER FOG MAY BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS.
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.6 INCHES NEAR THE NORTHERN KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL HEAD NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, REACHING SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TODAY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE, BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES
OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND THE LOW.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS DURING THIS
PERIOD, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. CONFIDENCE
FOR WIDESPREAD GALES ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT THOUGH FOR A
GALE WATCH OR WARNING. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BASED ON LATEST WINDS AND
WAVES.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
OF 29.1 INCHES IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW. THOUGH THE COLD LAKE MAY DAMPEN THE GUST
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT, SOUTHERLY GALES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES ON FRIDAY
BEHIND THE LOW. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH STORM FORCE PER
LATEST MODELS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES POSSIBLE.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052...1 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 AM
THURSDAY.
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