717
FXUS63 KMKX 121138
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
638 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, WITH ANY ACCUMULATION REMAINING
LIGHT (HALF INCH OR LESS). SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
POSSIBLE AND EVEN SOME POST FRONTAL FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY
MORNING.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHERE
EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
- ACCUMULATING SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS EVENT AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SFC RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
ONSET OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S TODAY. THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK
TONIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1159 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY
DOMINATING THE REGION. A BRIEF, TRANSITORY PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT GIVEN SOME
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN THE DGZ AND SOME WEAK OMEGA (PERHAPS FROM
MILD WAA). BUT THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS LIKELY PREVENT
MUCH IF ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL START FAIRLY QUIET AS A UPPER LOW AND
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL US WILL DIG
AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY MODELS HAVE COME INTO
LINE ON THIS EVENT WITH MODELS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS EVENT WILL
REALLY WRAP UP AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN WI.
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM HAS LARGELY LED TO SYSTEM
TO TREND TOWARD A LARGELY RAIN EVENT FOR SOUTHERN WI. STRONG
SOUTHERLY LLJ (UPWARDS OF 80 KTS) WITH BRING STRONG WAA IN
ADDITION TO THE PVA FROM THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN PRIMARILY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLIER RAIN LIKELIHOOD (60+%) WILL BE LARGELY
RESTRICTED TOWARD CENTRAL WI WHERE THE BETTER FORCING NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW EXISTS AND WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILES NEAR THE
SURFACE ARE BETTER INITIALLY. FURTHER SOUTH, CHANCES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ARE LOWER (35-55%) GIVEN SOME DRIER AIR THAT MAY NEED
TO BE OVERCOME FIRST.
I SHOULD BEGIN THE MENTION THAT SOME CAMS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SOME
FRONTAL BASED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY BE FAIRLY HEAVY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED,
THIS SITUATION DEFINITELY RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR SNOW SQUALLS.
WHILE THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS, IT BECOMES
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN MODELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THEN
BEHIND THE FRONT WE REALLY SEE CAMS DRY THINGS OUT IN THE DGZ,
IN FACT, GIVEN COOLING TEMPERATURES SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL, PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE LOW WHERE MOISTURE
IN THE DGZ MAY PERSIST SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE PRECIP LARGELY PUSHES
OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY STORY WITH THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY BE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM WIND. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL PUSH IN
THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL START TO INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR
STRONG WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY MOIST TO DRY ADIABATIC. THE LLJ WILL ALSO
GET STRONGER TOWARD THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE FACTORS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP LIKELIHOOD HAS CAUSED
INCREASED CONCERN FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE MID EVENING
HOURS. THIS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE SEE THE BEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS
PRECIP LOADING COULD BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN WHETHER WE END UP
SEEING THOSE HIGH END WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, BECAUSE IT
IS AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT TO EXPECT WINDS
TO NATURALLY MIX DOWN. FOR NOW, WE HAVE STARTED THE WIND
ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT WITH AN END TIME OF 6PM, BUT THE START TIME
COULD BE SHIFTED EARLIER OR LATER DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE PRECIP, THE PRECIP LOADING POTENTIAL AND WHETHER WE
SHOULD EXPECT MUCH MIXING OVERNIGHT AT ALL. INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS, WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH
STRONG CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD EXPECT TO MIX DOWN
WINDS ALOFT WITH A MUCH HIGHER DEGREE OF CERTAINTY. WINDS WILL
START TO COME BACK DOWN LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO PUSH OUT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1159 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH A PERIOD OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY, A BAND OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WAA WILL SLIDE INTO
SOUTHWEST WI AND CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY
LIMITED FORCING AND DRY AIR MAY LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL BUT
GRADUALLY WAA WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO BRING SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI. INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT 850MB WAA WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LLJ FACTORING IN AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL PVA. INTO SUNDAY ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL COME FROM THE
IMPACT OF BANDING AND STRONG FGEN THAT WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT
ROLL IN HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT.
IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE LEVEL OF IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE
AT THIS TIME FOR SOUTHERN WI AS THERE ARE TWO MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
AND SENSITIVITIES THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE IMPACT THIS
HAS ON ANY INDIVIDUAL AREA. THE PHASING OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST
THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AND ALSO, ALTHOUGH
RELATED, THE LOCATION OF THE FREEZING LINE. THESE TWO FACTORS
WILL DETERMINE IN LARGE PART THE IMPACT THIS SYSTEM HAS. AT THIS
POINT WE KNOW IT IS GOING TO SNOW A LOT SOMEWHERE AND THERE ALSO
MAY BE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL, PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE THERE
IS NO CURRENT CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS AT THIS TIME THERE IS THE
GENERAL SENSE THE FREEZING LINE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WI
SOMEWHERE WITH HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL DIRECTLY NORTH OF THAT LINE.
THIS HAS CERTAINLY INCREASED CONCERN FOR BOTH HEAVY SNOW AND
ICING IMPACTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANGES OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS MODELS BEING TO FOCUS IN ON THE EXACT WHERE AND WHEN
OF THIS EVENT.
OTHERWISE MONDAY MORNING REMAINING SNOW ON THE BACK END OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OUT THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING IN BY MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY LOOKS LARGELY DRY AT THIS
TIME BUT INTO MIDWEEK THERE ARE SOME SEMBLANCES OF A FEW
FEATURES THAT MAY BRING SOME ACTIVITY BUT UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THE
WEEKEND EVENT REMAINS HIGH.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THE EVENING. VERY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP THIS EVENING SHIFTING WESTERLY LATE TNT INTO FRI AM.
WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KT EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL WI, WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW TOWARD CENTRAL WI. WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD SRN WI FRI AM.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 638 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MIDDAY. THUS DECREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN BACKING SOUTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF 29.0 INCHES IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW. SOUTHERLY GALES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BY LATE EVENING THEN BECOMING WEST
NORTHWESTERLY FOR FRIDAY. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OF 30.3 INCHES MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GALES LIKELY. A COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW MAY LEAD TO A
ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES LINGER.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WIND ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
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