178
FXUS63 KMKX 261932 CCA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
223 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
IT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI
TOWARDS THE WI/IL BORDER.
- COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (15-40%
CHANCE). HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI.
- RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- TRENDING ACTIVE NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
AFTER A QUICK INTENSE BURST OF WINDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING, NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED IN TO GUST
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY REACHING 40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING WIDESPREAD
(80% COVERAGE) THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN THEN CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST. AN ISOLATED BOLT
OF LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON (~15% CHANCE).
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS CAA
CONTINUES. SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, EXPECT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. OVERNIGHT AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS
AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES SOUTHWARD, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S (UPPER 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).
FRIDAY, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT TO
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BETWEEN
20 AND 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF, QUICK-MOVING SNOW SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SCATTERED (15 TO 25% COVERAGE), AND PRODUCE MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL, MAY SEE BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
UNDERNEATH HEAVIER SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S WITHIN THE
CLOUD COVER OF THESE SHOWERS, AND IN THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE PLAINS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THING QUIET, DRY AND COOL FOR
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHWESTERN WI APPROACHING 50F. HOWEVER AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA PATTERN WILL BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL STEADILY RISE EACH DAY
BEGINNING SUNDAY TOPPING OFF IN THE 60S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, BUT
WE ARE ENTERING THE "COOLER BY THE LAKE" SEASON SO LAKESHORE
AREAS WILL REMAIN COOLER BY 5-15 DEGREES. EXPECTING EVEN WARMER
TEMPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PERSISTING WAA PATTERN
BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY MIDWEEK.
ACCOMPANYING THIS SPRING WARM UP WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
FEATURE REMAIN VARIABLE. NEVERTHELESS, LOOKING AT A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WITH DAILY PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TUESDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
ON THE SYSTEMS TRACK AS WELL OF THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OR IF IT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AN ISOLATED BOLT OF
LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER, BUT
THE CHANCES ARE DIMINISHING AS RAIN BUILDS. THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 1000-2000 FT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SCATTERING OUT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LAKE MICHIGAN
TERMINALS, WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
FROM MKE SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT, THEN WILL SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.7 INCHES WILL PRESS FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES IN ILLINOIS SLIDES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD GALES OF 35 TO 40 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE, WITH A FEW ISOLATED GALES TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS
IT PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
TO SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7
INCHES DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. WINDS THEN REMAIN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 5 PM
THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-
LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...5 PM THURSDAY
TO 5 AM FRIDAY.
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