602
FXUS63 KMKX 271030 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
530 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND,
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TRENDING TOWARD ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 530 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT WESTWARD DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
MOVING FARTHER INLAND THAN EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STALL
AND THEN EVENTUALLY RETREAT AS WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
MID TO LATE MORNING, THROUGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
ARE LIKELY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, SO LEFT THE 20% IN THE FORECAST. IN
ALL, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE UPCOMING DAY.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1247 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE SCOURED OUT A LOT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS OVER AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STILL PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THESE
WINDS HAVE ALSO BROUGHT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE LAKESHORE AREAS, AND SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S, BUT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
THE 30S WITH THE NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THE MORNING, THOUGH
THEY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY. THEY
WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, REINFORCING THE 30S
WIND CHILLS.
THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (AROUND 20 TO 30
PERCENT) FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH GOOD
DIFFERENTIAL CVA PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH SOME MOISTURE
TOWARD THE 850 MB LEVEL AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
PEAK HEATING.
CAMS AND MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DRY FOR THIS PERIOD IN
THAT AREA, THOUGH THE HRRR DOES TRY TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF
INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. FOR
NOW, LEFT IN POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT OR SO FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD BRING A QUICK
DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION, THOUGH
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM AND MOST OF THIS MAY MELT.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SNOW SQUALL SITUATION, AS THERE IS VERY
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, ALONG
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DEW POINT/RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS EACH AFTERNOON. THUS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
60S FOR SUNDAY. THE WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE EACH DAY, EXCEPT FOR AREAS
TOWARD PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN WHERE SOUTH WINDS MAY KEEP
ONSHORE FLOW GOING.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S WELL INLAND. THERE MAY
BE EASTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY, IF THE WARM FRONT STAYS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, SO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE LAKE ARE
FAR MORE UNCERTAIN, PER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND NBM. DEW POINTS
SHOULD START TO RISE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES UP.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1247 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
THIS WHOLE PERIOD FEATURES A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. VERY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO MILDER
CONDITIONS (THOUGH WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY) FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT, PASSING EITHER OVERHEAD OR FURTHER
NORTH IN WISCONSIN LATER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE IQRS
FOR TUESDAY'S DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN RELATIVELY TIGHT
AND WELL INTO THE 70S FOR INLAND AREAS, SUGGESTING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VERY WARM WEATHER FROM THE SURFACE WAA AHEAD OF
THE LOW.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW, WE COULD SEE
INLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S (OR EVEN UPPER 70S), WITH EITHER A
STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE (SHORELINE HIGHS IN THE 60S) OR STIFF
SOUTHWESTERLIES (SHORELINE AND MILWAUKEE METRO REACH 70S AS
WELL). IN EITHER CASE, ROUGHLY 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT (WAA ALOFT/WARM FRONT), TUESDAY (WARM FRONT/WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION), AND TUESDAY NIGHT (COLD FRONT) ARE
APPROPRIATE.
WITH THAT LEVEL OF WARMTH/MOISTURE RETURN, WE WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME THUNDER WITH THAT AS WELL, AND AS THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES CLEARER, WE'LL ASSESS WHETHER WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. GEFS POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER THAN 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE ON TUESDAY IS SITTING AT
ROUGHLY 50 PERCENT (HIGHEST FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN WISCONSIN)
WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY FROM ONE MEMBER TO THE NEXT.
COLD ADVECTION ENSUES AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS, LIKELY
LEAVING A COOLING TREND (MILDER TEMPERATURES) FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP. BEYOND THAT,
PREDICTABILITY IS INCREDIBLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE
ONLY COMMON THREAD FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS A CHANCE FOR AN
ADDITIONAL SLOWER-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (PERHAPS A COLORADO
LOW) TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION MID OR LATE NEXT
WEEK, DELIVERING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. RAIN WOULD EASILY
BE THE DOMINANT SOLUTION FOR PRECIP TYPE, DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT
WARMTH, WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE (UNCERTAIN) EVENT OF
A POTENT MOISTURE RETURN/DEEPER LOW PRESSURE.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 530 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF MADISON EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD STALL AND THEN EVENTUALLY RETREAT AS WINDS INCREASE AND
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER BASE AT
AROUND 5 KFT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE, MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN AREAS. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1247 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.8 INCHES WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE HIGH, STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE, AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS, FOR
WIDESPREAD GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY,
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHERLY INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, AS A WARM FRONT SETS UP TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION.
WINDS AND WAVES MAY INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
LINGERING TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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