676
FXUS63 KMKX 280004 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
704 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING NORTHEAST OF LINE FROM THE
WISCONSIN DELLS TO MILWAUKEE. AT MOST, A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.
- DRY AND WINDY THIS WEEKEND, APPROACHING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON.
- WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 704 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM THE
WISCONSIN DELLS TO MILWAUKEE. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
THE MAIN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE PASSING VORTICITY
ADVECTION SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD BRING THIS ACTIVITY
TO A GRADUAL END. AT MOST, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DUSTING OF
SNOWFALL AND VISIBILITY DROPS WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. THIS SHOULD BE RATHER
ISOLATED, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BEING FLURRIES.
BROKEN CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
EXPECTED. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING,
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED, WITH INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW
8000 FEET AGL SATURDAY, WITH THE GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS BRINGING
GOOD MIXING OUT POTENTIAL OF DEW POINTS. THIS SHOULD BRING VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF
THE AREA, LOWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MAY SEE SOME LOWER
VALUES AS WELL IN THIS AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND, WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE
POSSIBLY KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S THERE.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1234 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. SEEING LIGHT RADAR REFLECTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WI AND BASED ON THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY STILL
LOOKS TO CLIP OUR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MAINLY
LOOKING BETWEEN 18Z-23Z TIMING OF THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAY
SEE SOME FLURRIES LINGER INTO THE EVENING, BUT OVERALL LESS
CONFIDENT ON SEEING THINGS LINGER INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE
DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT AND MILDER SURFACES TEMPS, MAINLY LOOKING AT
A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THESE QUICK SNOW SHOWERS. MIGHT SEE BRIEF
DROPS IN VISIBILITY (1-3 MILES FOR LESS THAN AN HOUR AND
BRIEFLY BELOW 1 MI AT TIMES), BUT LOOKING AT JUST ENOUGH SNOW TO
WET THE ROADS AND MAYBE SEE A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH
AS BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE, LIGHT WINDS, AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LOOKING AT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST- SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
MORE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT EXPECT UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS WITH MORE SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WAA REGIME
WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN MILDER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SOUTHERN WI.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS,
MILDER TEMPS, AND DEEPER MIXING RESULTING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE RECENT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY HAVE AIDED IN HIGHER FUEL MOISTURE CONTENT, THE
INCREASE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1234 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE START
OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS AND THEN REBUILDS OVER THE
REGION WHILE A SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. CONTINUE
TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEE TEMPS IN THE 60S AND EVEN BEGINNING TO SEE
MORE HINTS OF 70F TEMP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MID-RANGE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AGAIN THE WARMER TEMPS WILL BE
INLAND WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN 5-15F
COOLER, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ONSHORE FLOW OR LAKE BREEZES THAN
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS STRONGER TEMP GRADIENT SETUP.
STILL MONITORING THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE ACTIVE TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE FOR THIS SYSTEM, GENERAL
TRENDS HAVE THE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE ACROSS WI AND HAVING OUR
CWA EITHER PARTIAL OR FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL SUITE YOU LOOK AT. NEVERTHELESS, STILL HAVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED POP CHANCES WITH THIS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS AND BEING A COUPLE DAYS OUT FOR ANY SPECIFICS,
THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH THE
TUESDAY SYSTEM GIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS ALIGNING WITH LOW-
LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS LOOKING QUIETER AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FILL IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD ANOTHER
ACTIVE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 704 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM THE
WISCONSIN DELLS TO MILWAUKEE. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BRING THIS ACTIVITY TO A GRADUAL END. AT MOST, THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF DUSTING OF SNOWFALL AND VISIBILITY DROPS WITH ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARD THE SHEBOYGAN
TERMINAL. THIS SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED, WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY BEING FLURRIES.
BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET AGL SHOULD GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN, BUT MAY REMAIN EAST OF THE MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA TERMINALS.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 1234 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SOME LINGERING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION AND PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH MOVES MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MAY SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WI NEARSHORES, BUT THE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITION
LOOK TO BE FURTHER NORTH. BREEZY SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
COULD SEE WINDS SHIFT WITH WARM FRONT LATER MONDAY AND
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR TUESDAY. MAY ALSO SEE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS WINDOW AS WELL.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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