014
FXUS63 KMKX 281907
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
207 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-41.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW THEN RAIN THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER INDIANA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BROAD WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING
REGIONALLY ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH, WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID-UPPER CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY EVENING. VACATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO GRADUALLY
WORK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING, WHERE IT REMAIN THROUGH
THE CONCLUSION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY'S GRADUAL
APPROACH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, ALLOWING FOR MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POCKETS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AS WINDS INCREASE & SUNNY SKIES ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IS TO THE WEST OF I-41, WHERE LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE DEEPEST & MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP THE
FURTHEST. FUELS, WHICH REMAIN ON THE MOIST SIDE AREAWIDE, WILL
PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE THUS
HELD OFF ON ANY SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
UPDATE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY, THOUGH MODEST MOISTURE RETURNS SHOULD
KEEP POTENTIAL LOWER THAN TODAY.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SYNOPSIS: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/THE CONCLUSION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
LINGER OVER THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THROUGH A LIKELY COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
PROCESSES, THE FRONT'S SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WILL PICK UP ON TUESDAY,
WITH THE BOUNDARY VACATING THE REGION BY MID-AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING/PASSING
FRONT, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY FOCUSING DURING THE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAMES. BROAD OVERLAP OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN COMING UPDATES.
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH MODERATION IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OCCURRING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRECIP COULD START AS LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY,
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT: WILL BE MONITORING FOR ROUND 1/2 OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SURFACE FRONT LINGERING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ELEVATED, AS A STOUT
EML NEAR/ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL LEAVE THE SURFACE LAYER CAPPED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
EML/CAPPING WILL HINDER ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, THOUGH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET & AFFILIATED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER ELEVATED SHOWERS &
STORMS MOVING DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY, AVAILABLE GLOBAL & MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS
THAT THE BEST LLJ DYNAMICS & ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG & NORTH OF I-94/US-18, WHICH IS WHERE LIKELY (~60%+) PRECIP
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ & ASSOCIATED
LIFT OVER COMING FORECAST CYCLES, SO ANTICIPATE SOME FURTHER
MOVEMENT IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IN COMING
UPDATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT ANYWHERE BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE WITH THE POTENTIAL CORRIDOR(S) OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, WHICH
WOULD OVERLAP WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL & PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WOULD ALSO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AS OF THIS FORECAST, THOUGH TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TUESDAY: WILL BE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE ROUND 2/2 OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICK THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IN ADDITION TO THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS & STORMS. IF THE FRONT LINGERS INTO THE AFTERNOON &
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY, THE CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS & STORMS WOULD
INCREASE, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE THE BOUNDARY
WILL PASS THE LATEST. IN THE EVENT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS REALIZED
FOR CONVECTION, SHEAR WOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF THE COLD FRONT/DESTABILIZATION ALONG IT---WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY ROUND 1/2 OF ACTIVITY---MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
OFFER FURTHER DETAILS AT THIS TIME, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED
CLOSELY IN COMING FORECASTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
AHEAD OF TWO MORE DISTURBANCES. COULD SEE SOME SNOW AT THE OUTSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY, WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN FRIDAY-SATURDAY. WILL OFFER MORE DETAILS
REGARDING PRECIP TOTALS & ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL AS THIS PORTION OF
THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
& EVENING AS BROAD WARM ADVECTION OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF CLOUDS TO BE BASED AT OR ABOVE FL100, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BASED BETWEEN FL030 AND
FL040 DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON & REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. LLWS REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL IN THE 18Z FORECAST. ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL AERODROMES.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WIDESPREAD GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
INDIANA, 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD 20-25 KNOT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS, WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN LAKE. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS FURTHER SOUTH. A
FEW GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT, WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WINDS WILL TREND NORTHERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS FOR A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION BEING FOR ANY SUCH GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED. 1040 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
TIME PERIOD AS 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, ALLOWING WINDS TO TREND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY. ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING/PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE IN NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM PORT WASHINGTON AND POINTS NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS THUS BEEN ISSUED BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM CDT FROM PORT
WASHINGTON NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN IN THE MID-DAY FORECAST UPDATE. WINDS
AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FURTHER
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER AS THEY VEER SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A LARGER OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT ALSO ALLOWING
WAVE HEIGHTS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THUS DON'T ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEYOND 10 PM CDT, THOUGH TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR HEADLINES AS THIS
PART OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
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