619
FXUS63 KMKX 291945
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH EXACT AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT DEPENDING ON EARLY DAY CLOUDS
& RAIN. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- CHANCES FOR WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW, WITH CURRENT OBS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY ALONG AN APPROXIMATE
WATERTOWN, SD - SAINT CLOUD, MN - IRONWOOD, MI LINE. WHILE CURRENTLY
STATIONARY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK, SETTING UP NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HALT
THE FRONT'S PROGRESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WARM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO ADVANCE INLAND, RESULTING IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING IN SOUTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ADVANCING
LAKE BREEZE & CENTRAL WISCONSIN SURFACE FRONT MERGING INTO ONE
EFFECT FRONTAL FEATURE MONDAY EVENING, WITH THE BOUNDARY SETTLING
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. LIFT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY, IN ADDITION TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITHIN AN INCREASING OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET, WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY EVENING & NIGHT, WITH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, AND COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL TREND MUCH QUIETER AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TUESDAY
EVENING & NIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON: POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH PEAK HEATING. MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DEEPER RETURNS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. FUELS CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE MOIST SIDE, WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MATERIALIZING.
NO SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE THUS PLANNED IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST UPDATE.
TONIGHT: WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS IF THE SURFACE FRONT MANAGES TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA.
WEAKENING WINDS IMMEDIATELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DECOUPLING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TO BE DENSE IN THE EVENT IT
DEVELOPS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING: CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE FIRST
OF TWO POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. PRECISE LOCATIONS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT, IN ADDITION TO COVERAGE OF STORMS THEMSELVES,
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z SUNDAY SUITE OF CAM
GUIDANCE. EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN---SPECIFICALLY THE
PRIMARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN, THE AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE, AND
THE SINGLE BOUNDARY THAT THEY CONSOLIDATE INTO---IS LIKELY TO BE THE
KEY INFLUENCE ON WHERE CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, AS AN OVERLAP OF DEEPER FRONTOGENESIS &
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST SUPPORT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. A LOOSE
CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE FAVORED
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 & US-18, THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN MODELING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL THUS NEED
TO MONITOR MODELING & OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER COMING UPDATES &
ADJUST THE POP FORECAST AS NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF WHERE/WHEN
STORMS FORM, AN OVERLAP OF BUILDING MUCAPE, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
POTENTIAL & SOME ATTENDANT STRONG/SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THE LIKELY
ELEVATED NATURE TO STORMS, CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS IF
DOWNDRAFTS CAN GET THROUGH TO THE SURFACE, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL
BEING CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE FRONT/WHERE THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE
LEAST CAPPED. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS, THOUGH
FLOODING CONCERNS APPEAR LOW GIVEN PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTIONS & LACK
OF TRAINING SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ANY CHANGES.
TUESDAY: WILL BE WATCHING FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON HOW FAST/SLOW THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED
BY EARLIER DAY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. THE LATER INTO THE DAY/PEAK
HEATING THE FRONT LINGERS, THE BETTER THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS. CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
WILL STAND THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING A SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS, THOUGH TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE NUMBER OF
UNCERTAINTIES IN PLAY. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THIS SECOND ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A COLD AIRMASS CORRELATED WITH DENSE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
ONTARIO AS THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAGNATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ITS PARENT LOW EXITS INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S.
MEANWHILE, THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LOOK TO PHASE WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE EJECTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO
PRODUCE STRONG WAA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN (50-70% CHANCES).
AHEAD OF THIS PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, BUT THIS WILL BE IN
A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE DUE TO CONTINUED CAA THROUGH THE
COLUMN AND SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECTING INITIAL SHOWERS
TO BEGIN AS RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY, BUT WHETHER THEY FALL BELOW FREEZING REMAINS IN QUESTION.
WITH INCREASING WAA AROUND 850 MB, A PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE
EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. IN AREAS THAT DO FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
94, A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE WARM NOSE
STRENGTHENS TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN SLEET, SNOW, AND
RAIN IS HIGHER THAN CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN DUE TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURE CONCERNS. FARTHER NORTH FROM SAUK TO SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES,
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
AS LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY MORNING,
THE WARM NOSE WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH CAA BECOMING DOMINANT AT THE
850 MB LEVEL. ANY REMAINING FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BECOME
SNOW, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING AND ALLOWING SNOW TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND
DRYING CONDITIONS (~40% CHANCES ADDITIONAL SHOWERS) OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PHASING DEVELOPS FRIDAY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST EJECTING LOW NEARS THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTOGENESIS REGION OF A DEVELOPING WYOMING HIGH
PLAINS LOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE INTENSITY AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS LOW, BUT STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. DISCREPANCIES
BECOME MORE EVIDENT INTO SATURDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A NORTHERN
SOLUTION THAT DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THE CANADIAN/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW MUCH SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH, BRINGING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POTENTIAL TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY, ALL MAJOR MODELS INDICATE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BASED
BETWEEN FL100 AND FL250 WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING SKIES ANTICIPATED
AREAWIDE THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
ONCE MORE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, BRINGING POTENTIAL LLWS IMPACTS TO
ALL FIELDS FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE ACCOUNTED
FOR THIS POTENTIAL IN THE 18Z FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT LINGERING OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS A LAKE BREEZE ADVANCES
INLAND.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS FURTHER SOUTH. A
FEW GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT, WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WINDS WILL TREND NORTHERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS FOR A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING FOR ANY SUCH GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED. 1040 MB
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD AS 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, ALLOWING WINDS TO TREND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED GALE POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR OR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH THE CONTINUED
EXPECTATION FOR ANY GUSTS TO BE TOO SPARSE TO JUSTIFY HEADLINES.
WILL NEVERTHELESS BE MONITORING TRENDS INTO THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING/PASSING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN
NEARSHORE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING, BUT AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEARSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANTICIPATE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BECOME NECESSARY DURING THIS PART
OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE NEED FOR HEADLINES BEING ADDRESSED IN COMING
UPDATES.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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