996
FXUS63 KMKX 310642
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
142 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR PUSH EAST NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR. THERE IS A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR LATER TUESDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH EXACT AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT DEPENDING
ON EARLY DAY CLOUDS/RAIN. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- THERE IS A TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 18 AND INTERSTATE
94 CORRIDOR MAY BE AFFECTED. IMPACTS TO THE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 142 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
THERE IS A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH ANOTHER AREA PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
FROM EASTERN IOWA. THIS IS WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET NOSE IS POINTING INTO, WHERE ELEVATED CAPE OF 1500 J/KG OR
MORE WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL
JET MAY POINT MORE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION.
CAMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE EVENING ACTIVITY, AND
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH WHAT MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR NOW, WILL KEEP CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY MORNING ON TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS, AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP.
IF SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO THE REST OF
TUESDAY MORNING, THIS COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS FAIRLY ROBUST LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE WITH THE FRONT, SO THERE MAY STILL
BE AT LEAST SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
CHANCES WILL HINGE ON ANY DAYTIME HEATING TO OCCUR, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR WHAT MAY HAPPEN DURING THIS PERIOD. KEPT
60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT THUNDER CHANCES WERE KEPT IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN FAR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA, WHERE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN
DEVELOP. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST, WHERE WINDS ARE MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE LOW
POSSIBLY NOW TRACKING EITHER THROUGH OR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. ENSEMBLES ARE MORE THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH THEY MAY TREND
LIKE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN LATER RUNS. THUS, THIS WOULD
TREND THE SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
END UP IN MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OR EVEN
MORE TO THE NORTH IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
FOR NOW, KEPT THE WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 18 AND
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR FOR NOW. THERE MAY BE TRAVEL IMPACTS
WHEREVER THIS SETS UP, SO IT WILL BE MONITORED AND EVENTUALLY
MESSAGED WHEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE WINTRY MIX
IS FOUND.
THIS SYSTEM ALSO MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA,
AS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SHOWING 50 PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR AMOUNTS ABOVE 1.00 INCH OVER NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. IF
THE NORTHWARD TREND CONTINUES, THIS MAY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS
WELL. THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS FOR THURSDAY, IF
MILDER TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE AREA. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 142 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OR
PASS NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, EXITING ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING MAINLY RAIN AND A FEW STORMS TO THE
AREA IF THIS TRACK HOLDS. BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS THEN WORK
IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH
THE REGION. ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREADS
FOR THIS PERIOD, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW TRACKS. SO,
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 142 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THERE IS A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH ANOTHER AREA PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA FROM EASTERN IOWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
IF SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO THE REST OF
TUESDAY MORNING, THIS COULD LIMIT FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY STILL BE AT LEAST SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. THE
THUNDERSTORM AND ANY SEVERE CHANCES WILL HINGE ON ANY DAYTIME
HEATING TO OCCUR, SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR WHAT MAY HAPPEN
DURING THIS PERIOD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP FOR MADISON, JANESVILLE
AND KENOSHA INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
FOR SHEBOYGAN, WAUKESHA AND MILWAUKEE. WINDS MAY BE ERRATIC NEAR
THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE AREA. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT LOCALLY
MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 1000 FEET
AGL OR LOWER AT TIMES THIS MORNING, LINGERING UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY REMAIN AROUND
2500 FEET AGL FOR A TIME AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BEFORE
RISING ABOVE 3500 FEET AGL TUESDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 142 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SAG SOUTH TO AROUND A MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN
TO WHITEHALL MICHIGAN LINE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH BOTH
WIND FLOWS BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. SOME 20 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD AND SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE LAKE, WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES (PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY). LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
ANY STRONGER STORMS.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, FOCUSING LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, BEFORE WASHING IT AWAY LATER
TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD
THEN VEER NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO TO
QUEBEC THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD, AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND
29.5 INCHES APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
LATER THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY, AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE LAKE.
WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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