224
FXUS63 KMKX 311908
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
208 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- AREAS NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR MAY OBSERVE A GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. HIGHEST POTENTIAL IS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IN THE REGION. SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE THURSDAY AM COMMUTE.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 SEVERE THREAT).
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 134 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED OVER FAR SRN WI BUT
THE NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION FROM GREEN COUNTY TO OZAUKEE COUNTY
ARE ALONG THE 925-850 MB FRONT. SFC-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE 925-850 MB FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS ELEVATED CAPE OF
1000 J/KG REMAINS. THE ELEVATED FRONT DOES LINGER A BIT INTO THE
EVENING OVER FAR SE WI SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THERE. THE ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ENTIRELY
INTO NRN IL BY 20-21Z WITH CHILLY TEMPS TO FOLLOW. FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON, THE RAIN THREAT IS MOSTLY OVER
AND SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPS NEAR 50F.
NNELY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TNT INTO WED AS
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO, REACHING JAMES BAY BY
00Z THU. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S TNT THEN ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI ON
WED, WITH LOWER 40S IN THE EAST.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
DEEP COLORADO LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY,
CROSSING CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING INTO CANADA. IN ADVANCE OF IT'S ARRIVAL, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC CANADA WILL FORCE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN, COOLING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK (PARTICULARLY WELL NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR), WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX, PREDOMINANTLY RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
ARRIVAL WINDOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ROUGHLY 6 TO 11 PM
WEDNESDAY EVENING IN A SW TO NE MANNER, ARRIVING AS PREDOMINANTLY
PLAIN RAIN SOUTH OF I-94 AND WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN,
AND WET SNOW (WITH SNOW AS THE LEAST LIKELY OF THE THREE) FURTHER
NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE EVENT (AFTER INITIAL ONSET)
SHOULD FEATURE LIQUID-ONLY HYDROMETEORS JUDGING BY THE EVER-
STRENGTHENING WARM NOSE EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
MEAN FREEZING RAIN WHERE IT IS COLD ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE
(GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREA, WELL NORTH OF I-94) AND PLAIN RAIN
FURTHER SOUTH. RISING SURFACE TEMPERATURES LATER THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WINTER WX CONCERNS, RAPIDLY MELTING ANY
ICE THAT MAY HAVE FORMED.
PRECIP TYPE AND TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD SWING ONE WAY OR ANOTHER
WITH EVEN JUST A TINY SHIFT IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, OR ANY MODELED MISREPRESENTATION OF THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO OUR EAST. SPEAKING OF WHICH, THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH, WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LESS
WINTRY PRECIP. THAT SAID, OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREAS
SOUTH OF I-94 WILL GET AWAY WITH ZERO WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS. THE
MSN/MKE METROS AND I-94 CORRIDOR HAVE SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A
THIN GLAZE OF ICE IF TEMPERATURES ALLOW, BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS
LITTLE TO NO WINTRY IMPACTS UNLESS THE SYSTEM REVERSES TRENDS AND
TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH. NORTH OF I-94 (SAUK THROUGH OZAUKEE COUNTIES
AND COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH) THERE WILL BE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SLICK SPOTS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A GLAZE ICE ACCRETION FROM
FREEZING RAIN, MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. VALUES UP TO A QUARTER
INCH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN PORTIONS OF SAUK,
MARQUETTE, GREEN LAKE, FOND DU LAC, AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES,
PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IN THESE COUNTIES, THOUGH THIS
WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE (35% CHANCE OR LESS), AND IS GROWING
LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TENDS TO TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH. PRIMARY IMPACTS WOULD BE TO THE THURSDAY AM COMMUTE.
PRECIP IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO ARRIVE TOO LATE WEDNESDAY TO IMPACT
THE WEDNESDAY PM COMMUTE, THOUGH WE'LL HAVE TO NARROW DOWN THE
ARRIVAL WINDOW TO BE CERTAIN. SOME MINOR SLEET AND WET SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN 1 INCH TOTAL) MAY OCCUR IN THIS SAME AREA
TOWARDS THE ONSET OF THE EVENT, BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
NEARLY ZERO MEASURABLE SNOW/SLEET, WITH FREEZING RAIN AS THE ONLY
REAL CONCERN.
DUE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WAA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY, WITH CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 SEVERE STORM THREAT). TEMPERATURES SOAR
INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AROUND 70 TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL
WI. MOST MODELS IN THE BALLPARK OF 200 TO 1,000 JOULES MUCAPE
BUILDING INTO THE CWA (HIGHEST FURTHER SOUTHWEST) ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELED CONVECTION (AS SEEN IN QPF OUTPUT)
OCCURRING IN THE WARM SECTOR (AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY), WITH
THE NAM SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (THURSDAY EVENING), WHICH FITS WITH OUR
CONCEPTUAL MODEL. DRY WEATHER LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION.
THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTION IS FOR YET ANOTHER COLORADO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK, WITH PRECIP EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (90% CHANCES).
PREDOMINANTLY AN ALL-RAIN EVENT (WITH THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN).
INCLUDED 10-30% PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO PREDAWN SUNDAY
IN THE FORECAST, WITH SOME CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN AS PRECIP SHUTS OFF (NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WHATSOEVER
AT THIS TIME). LIKELY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS (HIGHS IN THE
40S) WITH PASSING HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY SLOWLY
MODERATE UPWARDS FROM THERE INTO MID NEXT WEEK UNDER A LESS
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF AND GFS RESOLVE A
CLIPPER SYSTEM OR SHORTWAVE TROUGH LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
EITHER MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. CAPPING CHANCES AT 20% UNTIL THIS
FEATURE BECOMES CLEARER.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 134 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO SEWD ACROSS ERN
WI THIS AFTERNOON. VSBYS WILL DROP AS LOW AS 3/4-1SM WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE CIGS OF 600-1900
FEET WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF SRN WI WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LOCATIONS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. THE LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER OVER SE WI THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THU AM.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 134 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY AND BECOME
BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.7 INCHES EAST OF JAMES BAY IN
CANADA, AND LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN. GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT, THEN
FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM SHEBOYGAN TO
WINTHROP HARBOR FOR LATE THIS EVENING INTO LATE THU NT FOR
BRISK WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM
TUESDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY.
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