154
FXUS63 KMKX 010414
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1114 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR MAY OBSERVE A GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. HIGHEST POTENTIAL IS TOWARD
CENTRAL WI. SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE THURSDAY AM
COMMUTE.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 SEVERE THREAT). ALL HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN TONIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO INTO WEDNESDAY.
INTO THE UPPER LEVELS IT LARGELY LOOKS LIKE ZONAL FLOW BUT THE
LARGE SCALE LOOK APPEARS TO BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING,
PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEAST FLOW AND WE WARM UP A BIT OF A
BOUNDARY/FRONT FEATURE DEVELOPS AND SPREADS DOWN THE LAKE. IT
APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TYPE FEATURE BUT IN
EFFECT WILL JUST KEEP TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN WI FROM INCREASING
MUCH. THIS WILL BE AS TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST INCREASE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S THUS JUST CREATING A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
RESULT OF A LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SOME MOISTURE. GIVEN DRIER LOW TO MIDLEVELS THIS WOULD LIKELY
APPEAR AS VIRGA BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES/SPRINKLES.
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST. IN ADDITION, A
STRONG LLJ WILL NUDGE IN WITH STRONG WAA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. VERY HIGH CHANCES (>80%) FOR PRECIP
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STRONG WAA WILL
CREATE A WARM NOSE AND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING TOWARD
CENTRAL WI IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
REDUCED THE OVERALL RISK FOR EXTENSIVE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
BUT THERE REMAINS CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT ICING ACROSS CENTRAL
WI. WARMER TEMPERATURES RECENTLY MAY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR ROADS AS ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A DRY
SLOT TO SLIDE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WI AS SOME MODELS SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR STORMS MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY AS CAMS SUGGEST SCATTERED STORM POTENTIAL EVEN FOR
THE MORNING. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, HOWEVER. MOST OF SOUTHERN WI IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
THURSDAY LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/LOW. THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS
SUGGESTIVE OF EARLY EVENING STORMS WITH INSTABILITY OF UPWARDS
OF 1500J/KG ALONG WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-45KTS AND
0-1KM OF UPWARDS OF 40KTS AS WELL. VERY HIGH 0-1KM SRH APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING. STILL PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS WITH THE SEVERE RISK, BUT ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS RISK. RISK FOR STORMS WILL PUSH OUT BY THE LATE
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS OUT, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESPITE FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
INTO QUEBEC, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTOGENETIC REGION ARISING FROM THE
PHASING OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM A NEWLY EJECTING LOW IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
THE NEW LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR THE WARM FRONT
TO DOMINATE. ENSEMBLE MEMBER LOW LOCATIONS INDICATE STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS LOW THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING PRECIPITATION RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCAPE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT MODEL DEPICTIONS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PAINT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BRING SOME
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM EVEN OVERNIGHT. INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, EXPECT THE LOW TO EJECT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN,
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND BRINGING AN
END TO ANY SEVERE THREAT.
SOME MODEL-TO-MODEL TIMING DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP GOING INTO
SATURDAY, WITH FASTER MOVING MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
PROPAGATING INTO QUEBEC AND CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, MODELS THAT SHOW THE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
WOULD ALLOW FOR A DEEPER, SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM AND WRAP-AROUND
COLD RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. KEPT NBM POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
DOES EXIT INTO QUEBEC AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS, EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A COOLER AIRMASS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S AGAIN. INTO MONDAY, A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
FOLLOWS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPS TO LOW 50S
EXPECTED. IF TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER, SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH RAIN AT TIMES (20-30% CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION) AS THE
CLIPPER PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY, REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION
INTO SNOW SHOWERS (20-30% CHANCES) AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CONTINUES, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND BRINGING A RETURN TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE, MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
AS EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST WI AND APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA EVEN FURTHER THAN EXPECTED. ALL OF SOUTHEAST WI SHOULD
SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE RISING SUN WILL HELP RAISE THESE LOW CIGS
(POSSIBLY HELPING TO DISSIPATE CIGS) WITH VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE LOWER CIGS BUT PERHAPS MORE
IN THE 3500 FT RANGE. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN WEDNESDAY
EVENING WE WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS (POSSIBLY EVEN
LIFR) PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN WI BY THE
LATE EVENING WITH INCREASES RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ICE TOWARD CENTRAL WI AS WELL. RAIN AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. FAR
SOUTHERN WI WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF CLEARING
SKIES (OR AT LEAST DRY) WITH THE CORRESPONDING BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONGER STORMS LATER THURSDAY.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME BRISK INTO WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.5 INCHES BUILDS OVER ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY TO 30.6 INCHES AS IT PUSHES
TOWARD EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A BIT OF A FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE LAKE
WITH NORTHEASTERN WINDS BEHIND IT.
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OF NOW 30.7 INCHES EAST OF JAMES
BAY IN CANADA, AND LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES LIFTING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN. GUSTS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO REACH
GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND THUS A
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT, THEN FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME ICE TOWARD FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE, PARTICULARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN EXPECT SOME STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE 29.5 INCH LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR WAVES 5-8FT AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NORTH TO EAST BACK TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 4 AM
FRIDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...7 AM THURSDAY TO 5
PM THURSDAY.
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