831
FXUS63 KMKX 020109 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
809 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR ICE ACCRETIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN. 0.1 TO
0.2 INCHES OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED, MAINLY ON ELEVATED
AND UNTREATED SURFACES. TRAVEL IMPACTS TO THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE ARE EXPECTED.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94, AND AN ENHANCED RISK EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
- EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 809 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THE RAIN THAT WE ARE WAITING FOR THIS EVENING IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA WHICH IS ALONG AN AXIS OF
850MB FRONTOGENESIS. THERE IS A DECENT SLOPE TO IT FROM 850 TO
700MB WHICH HINTS AT WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND IS CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE
PRECIP IS STILL ON TRACK TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI BETWEEN
10 AND MIDNIGHT, AND INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM.
SOUTHERN WI STILL HAS A LOT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, BUT THIS
PRECIP MOVING IN WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO OVERCOME THAT. THE PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL RAIN SOUTH OF LONE ROCK TO MADISON TO
MILWAUKEE. WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
THIS LINE, AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S WILL HELP TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S DROP BELOW FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN AND SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN, AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKES PLACE PRIOR TO THAT LOW LEVEL
SATURATION (WET- BULB EFFECT). WHILE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, ICING CAN OCCUR ON ELEVATED
SURFACES (BRIDGES, OVERPASSES, POWER LINES, ETC. THE START TIME
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS 1 AM, BUT WE WILL BE
MONITORING CONDITIONS TO SEE IF WE HAVE TO BUMP UP THE START
TIME AT ALL.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 220 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LEE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES TO THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL START OUT FAIRLY DRY TO BEGIN WITH AS NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. BUT, SATURATION SHOULD BE ACHIEVED
AFTER 10PM AND RAIN SHOULD SPREAD IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH THE DEWPOINTS BELOW FREEZING, THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AIR TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB PRETTY EFFICIENTLY TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. WITH THE SURFACE
WET BULBING AND A WARM NOSE ALOFT OWING TO THE WARM ADVECTION,
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, GENERALLY WRAPPING UP AFTER
DAWN AS SURFACE WARM ADVECTION RAISES TEMPERATURES AND FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL ENDS. TOTAL ICE ACCRETIONS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS ACCRETION MAY OCCUR ON
ELEVATED SURFACES (OVERPASSES AND POWERLINES) AND UNTREATED
SURFACES, AS PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S. REGARDLESS, WITH THE ANTICIPATED ICE ACCUMULATION, TRAVEL
IMPACTS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TWO NORTHERN ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OUR
CWA FROM 1AM TO 9AM THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS.
THEN, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER INTO
CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MORNING RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIP AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED. THEN, AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON, A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL OVERLAP WITH
THE WARM SECTOR AND TRIPLE POINT OF THE LOW PROVIDING FORCING
FOR ASCENT, AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
FROM SOUTHWESTERN WI SOUTH INTO IL.
WE'LL HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SUNSHINE BEFORE STORMS MOVE IN,
BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REALIZE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG SBCAPE,
AMID EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 45 KNOTS. A SUPERCELLULAR MODE SHOULD BE
FAVORED GIVEN THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR, STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
VALUES IN THE 0-3KM LAYER >250 M2/S2, AND BOUNDARY PERPENDICULAR
SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION. 0-3KM CAPE VALUES FROM THE HRRR AND
RRFS DEPICT ~150 J/KG OVER OUR TWO SOUTHERN ROWS OF COUNTIES
LENDING CONFIDENCE IN GOOD LOW LEVEL STRETCHING POTENTIAL WITH
SICKLE SHAPED HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOW LEVELS. A FEW TORNADOES LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SETUP AND THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WOULD
ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT
AROUND 6.5 C/KM, BUT ANY SUPERCELLS MAY ENHANCE A HAIL THREAT
AS WELL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK TO HIGHLIGHT THESE
THREATS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL WI.
STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR FAR WEST AROUND
4PM AND EXIT EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 10PM. TEMPERATURES
THEN QUICKLY COOL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES AND COLD ADVECTION OCCURS OVER THE REGION.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 211 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NEWD FROM SRN WI INTO THE
NRN GREAT LAKES FRI AM, WHILE LOW PRESSURE AROUND 1003 MB OVER KS
MOVES TO SW IA BY 00Z SAT. WLY WINDS WILL THUS SHIFT TO ELY FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
ELSEWHERE 50S ARE FORECAST, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FRI. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FOR
THE LATER AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS 850-700 MB WARM, MOIST ADVECTION
BEGINS.
AN INCREASING SLY 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET STREAM AND INCREASING PVA
ALOFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER SD, WILL THEN BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS TO SRN WI FRI NT. THE SFC LOW APPROACHING
FROM IA WILL BECOME MORE BROAD AND SHOW SIGNS OF OCCLUSION AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO WRN MN BY 12Z SAT. THE LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS
SAT AM BUT A WARM SECTOR MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO SE WI. CONTINUED OR
NEW SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTS BUT MAY
OCCUR TO THE EAST OVER LAKE MI FOR THE 12-18Z SAT TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES
FOR SAT AM RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT OVER SW WI TO 50 PERCENT AT THE LAKE
MI SHORELINE. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FRI NT- SAT AM WILL BE ELEVATED
WITH PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
THE BROAD OCCLUDED LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES LATER ON SAT, THEN TO WRN QUEBEC BY 12Z
SUN. BRISK WNWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL SAT
AFTERNOON INTO SUN WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM 45-50F FOR SUNDAY. THE
COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT REINFORCE THE COOL AIR MASS. THEY WILL
ALSO BRING 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SUN NT-MON
NT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES ON TUE, MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
ON WED. SLY WINDS AND WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WILL THEN BOOST TEMPS
FOR WED BUT ALSO BRING 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 809 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THE MVFR CLOUDS OF 1200 TO 2000 FT ALONG THE LAKESHORE
DISAPPEARED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO
THE LOW LEVELS. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND AND
ALLOW CEILINGS TO BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
RAIN SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT ANY LOW CLOUDS STILL EXIST JUST
OFFSHORE.
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT, AND INTO SOUTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK
TO MADISON TO MILWAUKEE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN TONIGHT. THERE IS
STILL CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THAT LINE DUE TO
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND THERE IS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL HELP LOWER THE TEMPS AS THE
RAIN MOVES IN. TIMING AND DURATION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS WILL FALL WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, LIKELY DROPPING TO
IFR BELOW 1000 FT. VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE
RAIN. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN WI AS THE NIGHT GOES ON
MAY ALLOW FOR LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS BELOW 2SM DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL START INCREASING AND BECOME STRONG OVER
40 KT ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. A PERIOD OF NON- CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED, AND WILL END AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 208 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR JAMES BAY AND A SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
EASTERLY TONIGHT AND BECOME STRONGER AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4
INCHES ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN REACH
GALE FORCE THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE LAKE.
GALES OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY, WHILE THE MIDDLE THIRD MAY SEE A LULL FORM THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEN SOUTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING WITH TWO
SEGMENTS HAS BEEN ISSUED, WITH STAGGERED END TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEYOND, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060...1 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...7 AM THURSDAY TO
9 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876...7 AM THURSDAY
TO 1 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 4 AM
FRIDAY.
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