334
FXUS63 KMKX 042226
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
526 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POP-UP SHOWERS & SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT.
- SEASONAL TEMPS AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- 15-40% CHANCES FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS 6 PM
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
- RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES AN UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS EVENING. APPARENT IN REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAYS, LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW IS COMBINING WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
PROMOTE POP-UP SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THE
CURRENT HOUR. WHILE NOT A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT, THE HEAVIEST ECHOES APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE ALLOWED FOR GREATEST SURFACE
WARMING/LOCALLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT ONGOING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE PARENT UPPER WAVE
THROUGH MID- EVENING, WITH PRECIP COVERAGE GRADUALLY WANING AS
THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO COOL OFF. CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THAT PRECIP
WILL BEGIN AS ALL RAIN, THOUGH STEADY COOLING OF THE COLUMN
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING DEEPER INTO THE EVENING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS FROM PRECIP. EXPECT THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL SUBSIDE CLOSER TO/AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLUMN
DRIES OUT, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SOME FLURRY MENTIONS INTO THE
PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
AS THE PAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD, BREEZY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, DIMINISHING LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS EVIDENCED BY THE LOW CLOUDS AND FEINT RADAR
RETURNS TO OUR WEST, SOME SPRINKLES (A TRACE) OF RAIN OR VIRGA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON / THIS EVENING, LEFT IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND RISING CLOUD CEILINGS ON THESE WESTERLY WINDS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES
AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE. SOME 15-40% CHANCES FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ARE PRESENT 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS RENDERED AS SOME WEAK OPEN-
CELLULAR SHOWERS DRIFTING WITH THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, TIED TO SOME 500MB PVA AND COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT.
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS (HIGHS IN THE 40S, LOWS AROUND 20). A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY ~15% CHANCES FOR A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER ON MONDAY (MAINLY TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI AND
WITH THE PASSING FRONT), PERHAPS A STRAY SNOW SHOWER OR TWO AS
TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY, WITH
COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT / VARIABLE WINDS.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE NT-WED AS A WELL ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVE EWD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR WED,
BUT ALSO WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL THEN BECOME LIKELY
(60 PERCENT) WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NT, BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THU.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU NT-SAT WITH
RAIN CHANCES AT 40-60 PERCENT AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
POP-UP RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-EVENING REGIONALLY. ANTICIPATE GREATEST
COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94, WHERE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST PASS THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR ONGOING TRENDS & SHORT-TERM FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT FIELDS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94
THROUGH MID-EVENING. EXPECT PRECIP TO WANE THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHERWISE REMAINS
ON TRACK.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
OPEN WATERS / SYNOPSIS:
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST AND ACCELERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES CROSSES NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND
DEEPENS TO 29.3 INCHES, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME DUE WESTERLY AND
GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK LOW AROUND 30.0 INCHES IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE,
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS INTENSIFY AND TURN NORTH AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
30.6 INCHES MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA / WISCONSIN
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT
EXPECTED, BUT JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND CROSSES THE LAKE.
AS IT DRIFTS FURTHER EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES IS POSSIBLE MID
WEEK.
NEARSHORE ZONES:
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
DUE TO GUSTY WEST WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN ON MONDAY, VEERING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD. THESE WAVES WOULD THEN REMAIN ABOVE
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE WEEK.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM
SUNDAY.
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