682
FXUS63 KMKX 070521
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1221 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
(30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCES) IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WITH
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN OVER AREAS MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF MADISON. ANY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MAINLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS (AROUND 75 PERCENT) FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS (40 TO 65 PERCENT)
SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHEAST TO
EAST ON TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND AND MIDDLE 30S CLOSER
TO THE LAKESHORE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB DEVELOPING WITH A
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND UPWARD MOTION SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA, BUT ENOUGH OF
THIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO BRING 30 TO
60 PERCENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THERE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST A
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW, LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF MADISON. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THERE SHOULD BE MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW TO LIGHT RAIN
TRANSITION, AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION, AS
THE AIR COLUMN THERE IS DRIER.
THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST OF
MADISON LATER TUESDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS A LIGHT GLAZING MAINLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THIS POTENTIAL. IT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIGHT RAIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MID
WEEK, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARRIVE, WITH
WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND,
SOME 50S ALONG THE SHORELINE WITH THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE
LAKE. RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) LINGER NORTH OF A MONROE TO WEST
BEND LINE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH ALL OF THE WAA ALOFT,
WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND BOOSTING RAIN CHANCES TO ~75% AREA-
WIDE. LIKELY A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE CONTINUES BEHIND THAT COLD
FRONT THURSDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 60 TO THE MID
60S WITH THE WARMTH LIKELY SPREADING TO THE SHORELINE. A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH ONLY ~20% CHANCES FOR
ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS TO REACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WOBBLE NORTH THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT DELIVERING 40-65% RAIN CHANCES (HIGHEST FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR REGION) BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND FORCES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEAR OF OUR REGION. HENCE, DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY. INLAND HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED, WITH EAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE
LEADING TO COOLER SHORELINE TEMPS.
A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES AND TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY DRAGGING A POTENT WARM SECTOR
INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY/MONDAY. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE IQRS
INDICATE RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S THESE
TWO DAYS, POSSIBLY EVEN THE LOW 80S. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WARM
SECTOR BRINGS WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHEAST TO
EAST ON TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE.
A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW,
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF MADISON.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE SHOULD BE MORE OF A LIGHT
SNOW TO LIGHT RAIN TRANSITION, AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION, WITH
DRIER AIR THERE.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 3 TO 5 MILES
MAY OCCUR IN STEADIER PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF MADISON.
THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST OF
MADISON LATER TUESDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS A LIGHT GLAZING MAINLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. IT SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIGHT RAIN BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.6 INCHES MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL ALSO DECREASE DURING
THIS PERIOD.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
MORNING FOR LINGERING GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED WAVES ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN TRACK NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE HERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MUCH WEAKER WINDS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874...7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
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