779
FXUS63 KMKX 071818
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
118 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT (30
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCES) IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WITH SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN OVER AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
MADISON. ANY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS (AROUND 85 PERCENT) FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DURING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS (50 TO 80 PERCENT)
SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 120 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
TONIGHT, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE UPPER CENTRAL PLAINS, EXPECT A SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THUS PRECIP
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO START PUSHING IN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE THE BIGGEST
DETRIMENT TO ANY PRECIP AS AREAS, PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST
(CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE), WHERE THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE PRECIP POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, IT
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BRING SOME PRECIP TO MOST OF SOUTHERN
WI. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHAT PRECIP SHOULD WE EXPECT.
GIVEN COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AS THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY PUSHES IN THE
VERY FRONT OF THE SYSTEM MAY IN FACT BE LIGHT SNOW, BUT GIVEN
THE WAA ALOFT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE WILL DEVELOP. WHILE
WAA ALOFT WILL CREATE A WARM NOSE THE GENERAL WAA AT THE SURFACE
WILL RAISE TEMPS AT THE SURFACE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. TOWARD CENTRAL WI THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN GIVEN COOLER SURFACE TEMPS BUT GIVEN WARMER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER RAIN ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT AND LIKELY ONLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY
WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING MAKING THIS LARGELY JUST A RAIN EVENT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT BY AROUND MID
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES IN TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE DEVELOPING LOW OUT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BASE OF THE LOW AROUND THE
CENTRAL US/CANADA BORDER. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
SUPPORT FROM THE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AS WELL. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THE MAJORITY OF IT WILL OCCUR WED EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PRIMARILY ALONG THE FRONT. A TINY BIT OF INSTABILITY MAY
YIELD A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS IN ANY
GIVEN AREA WITH RAIN PUSHING OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT HIGHER
PRESSURE TO PUSH IN BEHIND IT, THOUGH THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED. THURSDAY DURING THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY BUT BY
THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
BASED FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT, STRONG WAA ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH A MOIST COLUMN
SUGGEST A VERY HIGH CHANCE FOR PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SLUG
OF RAIN EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCES (75+%) WILL BE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH LESSER CHANCES (40-70%)
TOWARD CENTRAL WI. THUNDER LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PROFILES
SUGGESTING VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ANY
FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY
PUSH OUT SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, SHOVING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST BUT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING US DRY. EAST WIND OFF THE
LAKE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US FAIRLY COOL, HOWEVER.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 120 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, MILDEST IN THE WEST AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY PER 12Z MODELS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT PERIODS
OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROLL THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
STRENGTH/TIMING/PLACEMENT IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME GIVEN VARIATIONS
AMONG THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. PLUS, THIS PERIOD IS SEVERAL
DAYS OUT, SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO CHANGE.
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES GOING TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION, WITH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW FOR
MID-WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 120 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AS MID
LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. A PERIOD OF
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY NORTH OF MADISON TO WEST BEND BETWEEN 1 AND 4 AM
(08-11Z). A BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THERE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
DURING THE PRECIP, BUT CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 120 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.6 INCHES HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN LOWERING WINDS GENERALLY ACROSS THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN TRACK NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE LAKE. A GALE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN NEARSHORE ZONE WITH THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE IN A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
MUCH WEAKER NORTH WINDS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TOWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
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