793
FXUS63 KMKX 080429
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1129 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT
(50-80 PERCENT) IN SRN WI WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN OVER AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF MADISON. ANY LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (80-90 PERCENT) WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS (60-90 PERCENT) ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1127 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
FOR TNT A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SD,
WHILE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK INTO
SRN MANITOBA. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG SWLY LLJ TOWARD SRN WI.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SW WI LATE THIS
EVENING AND IS ON TRACK TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. DESPITE THE CURRENT DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION,
THE NOSE OF A SWLY 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETAE
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS, WILL BRING PWATS OF 0.70 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. A DECENT SURGE OF LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES WITH ALL BUT FAR SE WI TO LIKELY SEE LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SFC TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK NORTH AND EAST OF MADISON THEN GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. TWO TO THREE HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
LIKELY JUST NORTH OF MADISON AND TOWARD CENTRAL WI DUE TO AN
INVADING WARM LAYER ALOFT. HOWEVER, ROAD TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING SO ONLY A GLAZE OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON ELEVATED
SURFACES, THAT WOULD PROMPTLY MELT TOWARD SUNRISE.
BREEZY SLY WINDS AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS INTO ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 TO 40 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 1 INCH FOR WED EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS DEPICTED WITH THE FRONT INCLUDING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES.
WEAK SFC RIDGING AND WLY SFC FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH
COOLER TEMPS THAN WED, BUT STILL ON THE MILD SIDE. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO IN THU NT. PWATS OF 0.75-1.00
INCHES WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. WELL ORGANIZED
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR
THE IL BORDER WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. 0.50-0.80 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
FORECAST OVER FAR SRN WI WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
AFTERWARD, WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE
FORECAST FRI-SAT, WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO
SAT ON SELY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1127 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND MN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SWLY
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO TUE WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
PASS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST SUN-MON THEN COOLING
INTO THE 50-60S FOR TUE.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1127 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
LIGHT SNOW, RAIN, AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF SRN WI WITH MUCH OF THE
FREEZING RAIN FROM MADISON NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL WI. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 10-14Z WED.
BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON WED BUT A FEW HOURS OF
LLWS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BEFORE THE MIXING ENSUES.
WIDESPREAD LLWS IS THEN EXPECTED WED NT ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1127 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.6 INCHES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TONIGHT, WHILE LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES
TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND CANADIAN BORDER,
THEN NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE
LAKE.
MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL
INTO SATURDAY, UNTIL BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
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