932
FXUS63 KMKX 081125 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
625 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (80-90 PERCENT WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH
ACCUMULATION) THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS (60-90 PERCENT) ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THE WINTRY MIX OCCURRED OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING, BUT HAS
CHANGED TO ALL RAIN PER THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SHEBOYGAN. THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL END BY
630 AM AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE STILL BEING GENERATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION BACK INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS MORNING, SO WE MAY NEED
TO EXTEND THE RAIN SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH NOON TODAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE ALREADY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STREAMS OVERHEAD. BY 10 AM, WINDS WILL BE 50 KT AT
850MB AND 40 KT AT 925MB. THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING IS THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR TODAY, BUT IF WE START TO SEE UPSTREAM WIND
GUSTS OF 39 KT (45 MPH) OR HIGHER THIS MORNING, WE MAY HAVE TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE IN DESI IS SHOWING A
60 TO 80% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 45 MPH GUSTS NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM MONROE TO MADISON TO WEST BEND TO SHEBOYGAN FROM 10 AM
THROUGH 3 PM.
THE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BRING A WIDESPREAD QUARTER INCH TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI.
THE CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH IS 80-90% TOWARD
CENTRAL WI, 60% FROM MADISON TO WEST BEND, AND 40-50% FROM
MONROE TO WAUKESHA TO PORT WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWARD.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1127 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
FOR TNT A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SD,
WHILE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK INTO
SRN MANITOBA. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG SWLY LLJ TOWARD SRN WI.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SW WI LATE THIS
EVENING AND IS ON TRACK TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. DESPITE THE CURRENT DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION,
THE NOSE OF A SWLY 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETAE
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS, WILL BRING PWATS OF 0.70 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. A DECENT SURGE OF LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES WITH ALL BUT FAR SE WI TO LIKELY SEE LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SFC TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK NORTH AND EAST OF MADISON THEN GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. TWO TO THREE HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
LIKELY JUST NORTH OF MADISON AND TOWARD CENTRAL WI DUE TO AN
INVADING WARM LAYER ALOFT. HOWEVER, ROAD TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING SO ONLY A GLAZE OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON ELEVATED
SURFACES, THAT WOULD PROMPTLY MELT TOWARD SUNRISE.
BREEZY SLY WINDS AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS INTO ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 TO 40 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 1 INCH FOR WED EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS DEPICTED WITH THE FRONT INCLUDING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES.
WEAK SFC RIDGING AND WLY SFC FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH
COOLER TEMPS THAN WED, BUT STILL ON THE MILD SIDE. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO IN THU NT. PWATS OF 0.75-1.00
INCHES WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. WELL ORGANIZED
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR
THE IL BORDER WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. 0.50-0.80 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
FORECAST OVER FAR SRN WI WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
AFTERWARD, WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE
FORECAST FRI-SAT, WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO
SAT ON SELY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1127 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND MN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SWLY
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO TUE WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
PASS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST SUN-MON THEN COOLING
INTO THE 50-60S FOR TUE.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THE WINTRY MIX OVER EAST CENTRAL WI WILL EXIT PRIOR TO 12Z AND
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 17Z. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH SHOULD
NOT BE PREVAILING. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.6 INCHES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND CANADIAN BORDER WILL
TRACK NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE.
MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO
SATURDAY, UNTIL BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874
UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 4 AM
THURSDAY.
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