615
FXUS63 KMKX 090037
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
737 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (80-90 PERCENT WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH
ACCUMULATION WITH UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE) ARE ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS (60-90+ PERCENT)
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 736 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HIGH BASED, LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OVERSPREADING
SOUTH CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS NEAR THE MS RIVER, AND HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS EVENING. THE FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE MADISON AREA AROUND 07Z AND AT MKE AROUND 10Z.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.20-0.40 INCHES ARE FORECAST NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MKE METRO AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN FAR SE WI. SUBSIDENCE
AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WEAK SFC RIDGING AND A WLY SFC FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH
COOLER TEMPS THAN WED, BUT STILL ON THE MILD SIDE. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO FAR SRN LOWER MI THU NT.
PWATS OF 0.75-1.00 INCHES WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION.
WELL ORGANIZED 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR THE IL BORDER WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. 0.50-0.90 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT TO
MADISON TO PORT WASHINGTON.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE DEVELOPING LOW OUT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BASE OF THE LOW AROUND THE CENTRAL
US/CANADA BORDER. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING/NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL HERE WITH THE FRONT AS THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM
WITH SUPPLEMENTAL HELP FROM A LITTLE MIDLEVEL WAA AND SOME PVA
ALOFT EJECTING FROM THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SW ONTARIO. PRECIP
MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CWA
WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THE MAJORITY OF IT WILL COME
THROUGH WED EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY ALONG THE
FRONT. A TINY BIT OF INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS IN ANY GIVEN AREA FROM NW TO SE
WITH RAIN PUSHING OUT OF SE WI BY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT HIGHER
PRESSURE TO PUSH IN BEHIND IT, THOUGH THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED. THURSDAY DURING THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY BUT BY
THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
BASED FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT, STRONG WAA ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH A MOIST COLUMN
SUGGEST A VERY HIGH CHANCE FOR PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SLUG
OF RAIN EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCES (90+%) WILL BE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH LESSER CHANCES (40-80%)
TOWARD CENTRAL WI. THUNDER LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PROFILES
SUGGESTING VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ANY
FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY
PUSH OUT SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST, SHOVING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST BUT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP US FAIRLY COOL, HOWEVER.
LATER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WE WILL START TO SEE THE NEXT
SYSTEM START TO PUSH IN AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
US. PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO PUSH IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY PER LATEST MODELS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN EVEN MILDER
CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT
PERIODS OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROLL THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
STRENGTH/TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAINS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
VARIATIONS AMONG THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. PLUS, THIS PERIOD IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO
CHANGE.
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES GOING TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION, WITH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW FOR
MID-WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 736 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
LLWS WILL BE PREVALENT TNT VIA A SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER SRN WI. A FEW HOURS OR SO OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AT ANY ONE LOCATION WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
OR CIGS POSSIBLE. CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WILL
THEN TAKE HOLD MOSTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY RETURN THU
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE RAINFALL INCLUDING AREAS OF CIGS BELOW 1 KFT OVER FAR
SRN WI.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.6 INCHES HAVE PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN US
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND CANADIAN BORDER WILL TRACK NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BE
STRONG. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE
LAKE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE ZONE AND SMALL CRAFT THE REST OF THE
NEARSHORE ZONES. A SMALL CRAFT WILL FOLLOW FOR THE NORTHERN
NEARSHORE ZONE AFTER GALES SUBSIDE.
BEHIND THE FRONT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES NUDGING IN. MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY,
UNTIL BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL
4 AM CDT THURSDAY.
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