166
FXUS63 KMKX 092341
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
641 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS (60-90+ PERCENT) IS FORECAST TONIGHT.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED 638 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN ON TRACK AS RAIN MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 145 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THIS EVENING EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
BASED FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT, STRONG WAA ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH A MOIST COLUMN
SUGGEST A VERY HIGH CHANCE FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING WITH A SLUG
OF RAIN EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCES (90+%) WILL BE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES
TOWARD CENTRAL WI. THUNDER LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PROFILES
SUGGESTING VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ANY
FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. PWATS ACROSS THE CWA WILL
RANGE FROM 0.75-1 IN. AND PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE IN
THE 0.2 RANGE TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI BUT BETWEEN 0.75
AND 1 INCH TOWARD THE WI/IL BORDER. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY PUSH
OUT SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, SHOVING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH. FRIDAY DURING
THE DAY CAMS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
PRIMARILY NEAR THE LAKE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WAA AROUND 850MB PROVIDING ENOUGH
FORCING TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST BUT WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING US DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE FROM
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US FAIRLY COOL, HOWEVER.
LATER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WE WILL START TO SEE THE NEXT
SYSTEM START TO PUSH IN AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
US. PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO PUSH IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 145 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY PER LATEST MODELS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACH THE 70S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH FAR MORE
UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT PERIODS OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROLL THROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY REMAINS HIGH BUT ANY ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY INCLUDE
STORM CHANCES GIVEN LIKELY INSTABILITY BEING PLENTIFUL DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHAT THE CHANCES WILL BE
FOR SEVERE STORMS, PARTICULARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING THE
BEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS THAT LEAD
TO SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE BUT A BIG COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS ALWAYS TIMING. IN ANY CASE, FORECAST CWASP VALUES ARE
FAIRLY HIGH FOR MON AND TUE WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BOTH
OF WITH IN ADDITION TO INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL, THIS COULD LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LATEST PERIOD TO
WHICH THE LOW EXITS, WITH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT, WITH
CEILINGS COMING DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR. SOME VIS RESTRICTION WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER POCKETS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.
RAIN ENDS NEAR DAWN ON FRIDAY, WITH CEILINGS RISING TO HIGH
MVFR/LOW VFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND SCATTERING OUT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 145 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES HAS PUSHED EAST OF ST JAMES BAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OF 30. INCHES BUILDING IN OVER
THE LAKE. RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
REGION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE
NORTHERLY ACROSS THE LAKE BUT FAIRLY LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH THIS SYSTEM BACK SOUTH AND BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TO AROUND 30.4 INCHES. OVERALL LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE WEEKEND THROUGH AS LATE AS MID NEXT
WEEK.
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH HALF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK FEATURING
CHANCES FOR STORMS, POSSIBLY SOME STORMS BEING STRONG.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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