284
FXUS63 KMKX 110014
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
714 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI TONIGHT.
- HIGHS IN THE 50S SATURDAY BEFORE 70S RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION. CAMS SUGGEST SOME FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
THE WEST. CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST FOR A BIT AS A WAVE OF
850MB MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL PUSH OUT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AMONG
MODELS FOR EXACTLY WHEN TO EXPECT PRECIP TO PUSH IN BUT MOST
MODELS KEEP US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.
INTO THE AFTERNOON, CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS LOW TO MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN CWA WITH INCREASING WAA AS A
LLJ NUDGES INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WI WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR PRECIP. SOME THUNDER
SHOULD BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY IN
MODELS, THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY WITH STORMS AND GIVEN SOME PWATS
PUSHING IN AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SOME HEAVIER RAINS COULD BE SEEN
THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND IN MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF 1+ INCH
RAIN BUT LIKELY THE BETTER CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA
AT THIS TIME.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AVAILABLE CAMS, AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A
DRIER PERIOD COME SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EVERY MODEL SHOWS THIS BUT
IT BRINGS LESSER CHANCES OVERALL AND MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS STORMS WOULD REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. THEN LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WE
WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE TRACK THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
SOME ADDITIONAL WAA FROM THE LLJ OVER THE AREA. WHILE STORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIP WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AREA THIS
PRECIP IS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND IS ALSO WELL OUT AHEAD OF BEST INSTABILITY FURTHER WEST WITH
VERY POOR LAPSE RATES IN OUR CWA. GENERALLY THE RRFS IS
SUGGESTIVE OF A SHIELD OF PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF A NON- SEVERE CONVECTIVE MODE. THE PRIMARY THING
TO WATCH FOR IS A LOW CAPE, HIGHER SHEAR TYPE EVENT GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF AN AREA OF 40+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN A FAIRLY
HIGH SRH SITUATION.
INTO MONDAY, MODELS HAVE TRENDED LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT
WITH LIMITED FORCING OVER SOUTHERN WI MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF WI WILL
SEE BETTER POTENTIAL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
STORMS GIVEN A MUCH WEAKER INVERSION, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT
THAT MAY YIELD BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BASED ON THE GLOBAL
MODELS, IF WE CAN MANAGE STORMS THEY WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED
BRINGING PRIMARILY A HAIL RISK. HOWEVER, IF MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY OVERSTATING THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OR POSITION
OF THE LOW IN REFERENCE TO THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT THEN
SEVERE WEATHER BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT RISK. THE LONGER RANGE
OUTPUT OF THE RRFS EXEMPLIFIES THIS POTENTIAL RISK SHOULD THE
WARM FRONT SET UP FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
WITH THE INVERSION BEING OF A LESSER CONCERN. ALL HAZARDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO. THE SET UP FOR THIS WARM FRONT
APPEARS LIKELY TO FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WI.
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER DAY GIVEN
THE SURFACE LOW SWINGING THROUGH WI WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY OF
1500J/KG OR MORE WITH HIGH END DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55KTS. IN
ADDITION, CWASP WILL BE QUITE HIGH AND GIVEN 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND
30 KTS WITH SRH LIKELY OVER 200M2/S2 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WE ALSO LOOK LIKELY TO BE SURFACE BASED WITH CAPPING
INITIALLY BUT LIKELY ERODING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL TO BE
WORKED OUT AS THE IMPACTS FOR US SPECIFICALLY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE CONVECTIVE MODE WHICH CAN STILL CHANGE THIS FAR OUT.
WEDNESDAY, MOST MODELS HAVE EVERYTHING PUSHING OUT FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE FRONT BUT THE EC REALLY HOLDS THE SURFACE LOW BACK WITH
A SLOWER TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IF THE EC WERE TO
BE ON THE RIGHT TRACK IT WOULD LIKELY BRING A BETTER RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY THAN EVEN TUESDAY AS THE BEST
INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE HELD BACK A DAY.
IT BECOMES A BIT OF A CLUSTER BEYOND MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES AND
FLOW REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WARM TEMPERATURES, INSTABILITY AND THE
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL IMPACTFUL SYSTEMS. SPECIFICALLY, NEXT
FRIDAY AND EVEN NEXT SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE US WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO
BE A VERY ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN WI.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 709 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, SAVE FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG TO FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK AND BECOME MORE
MODERATE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHARPER PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE LAKE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS IT DEEPENS TO NEAR 29.4 INCHES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE
SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE HUDSON BAY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL THUS INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL BE MONITORING FOR GALE POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE NEED FOR HEADLINES FOR THE OPEN AND NEARSHORE
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THIS PORTION OF THE
PERIOD APPROACHES WITH A SMALL CRAFT LIKELY BEING NEEDED BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY MORNING AS 30.0 INCH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO.
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENTLY ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD, AS SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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