436
FXUS63 KMKX 110536
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1236 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI TONIGHT.
- HIGHS IN THE 50S SATURDAY BEFORE 70S RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CURRENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
TRAP SOME MARGINALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM AN AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY OCCUR
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH FOG DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE AFTERNOON, SOME ATTEMPTS AT LIGHT
RAIN MAY OCCUR, BUT WE MAY NOT REACH FULL SATURATION DUE TO SOME
DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING AT THE SURFACE. AS WE
HEAD LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON, LOW LEVELS SHOULD STEADILY
MOISTEN AND RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CAUSE SOME WEAK
MUCAPE TO BUILD TO 500 J/KG AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY
OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ON AND OFF SHOWERY RAIN AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE THEN
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AND A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THAT WARMER
SURFACE AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO 35 MPH.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
MULTIPLE DAYS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE TO
START THE WORK WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL AS IT STALLS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY'S
STORM THREAT STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION, AS RUNS OF THE RRFS,
NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF ALL WIDELY DISAGREE ON WHERE STORMS WILL
INITIATE ON MONDAY, THOUGH A MORE RECENT TREND WITH THE EVENING
00Z RUNS FAVORS STORMS FIRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI, WHICH WOULD LARGELY SPARE US.
DETAILS HAVE THEN BECOME CLEARER POINTING TOWARD TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST OVER IOWA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CSU MLP PROBS
INCLUDE A SIG SEVERE CONTOUR OVER OUR AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN OVERLAP OF SFC MOISTURE, WITH LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT, AND GREAT KINEMATICS FROM A
STRONG 850MB JET ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A DAY WHERE ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME DETAILS REGARDING MORNING
CONVECTION NEED TO BE HAMMERED OUT, AS THE RRFS SUGGESTS THERE
MAY BE SOME AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. ANY MORNING CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT/HAMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK OWING TO AN INABILITY
TO RECOVER INSTABILITY. DEPENDING UPON HOW TUESDAY EVOLVES AND
THE POSITIONING OF A COLD FRONT, WEDNESDAY MAY THEN FEATURE MORE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSES.
BEYOND, THE CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAK, AND WARM
ADVECTION FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY ALLOW US
TO RECOVER INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1123 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, SAVE FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG TO FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK AND BECOME MORE
MODERATE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 1122 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY TONIGHT
AS A SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE LAKE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS IT DEEPENS. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE SOUTHERN SHORES
OF THE HUDSON BAY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THUS
INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL BE MONITORING FOR GALE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE, FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
POSSIBLE GALES AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO. THEN, PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NEXT
WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
MONDAY- WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD, AS SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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