328
FXUS63 KMKX 111002
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
502 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH DAYBREAK.
- HIGHS IN THE 50S SATURDAY BEFORE 70S RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS & EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN LOW-LYING SPOTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY YET TO DEVELOP GIVEN A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS THINKING THAT ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO LOW-LYING SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERING OF RAIN SHOWERS ONGOING OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AT THE CURRENT HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ONGOING
WITHIN A BELT OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ROOTED NEAR THE 700 MB
LEVEL, AND IS PROGGED TO ATTEMPT TO WORK EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
PRECIP PROBABILITIES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT DO THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS AND
ADJUSTING THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER POTENTIAL
SETTLES IN THIS EVENING AS DEEPER WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
WORK INTO THE REGION. INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED FROM
ANY APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THOUGH SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER COULD GRADUALLY MIX IN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS MUCAPE STARTS TO INCREASE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THIS ACTIVITY, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY STORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CURRENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
TRAP SOME MARGINALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM AN AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY OCCUR
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH FOG DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE AFTERNOON, SOME ATTEMPTS AT LIGHT
RAIN MAY OCCUR, BUT WE MAY NOT REACH FULL SATURATION DUE TO SOME
DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING AT THE SURFACE. AS WE
HEAD LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON, LOW LEVELS SHOULD STEADILY
MOISTEN AND RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CAUSE SOME WEAK
MUCAPE TO BUILD TO 500 J/KG AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY
OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ON AND OFF SHOWERY RAIN AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE THEN
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AND A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THAT WARMER
SURFACE AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO 35 MPH.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
MULTIPLE DAYS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE TO
START THE WORK WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL AS IT STALLS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY'S
STORM THREAT STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION, AS RUNS OF THE RRFS,
NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF ALL WIDELY DISAGREE ON WHERE STORMS WILL
INITIATE ON MONDAY, THOUGH A MORE RECENT TREND WITH THE EVENING
00Z RUNS FAVORS STORMS FIRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI, WHICH WOULD LARGELY SPARE US.
DETAILS HAVE THEN BECOME CLEARER POINTING TOWARD TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST OVER IOWA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CSU MLP PROBS
INCLUDE A SIG SEVERE CONTOUR OVER OUR AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN OVERLAP OF SFC MOISTURE, WITH LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT, AND GREAT KINEMATICS FROM A
STRONG 850MB JET ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A DAY WHERE ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME DETAILS REGARDING MORNING
CONVECTION NEED TO BE HAMMERED OUT, AS THE RRFS SUGGESTS THERE
MAY BE SOME AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. ANY MORNING CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT/HAMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK OWING TO AN INABILITY
TO RECOVER INSTABILITY. DEPENDING UPON HOW TUESDAY EVOLVES AND
THE POSITIONING OF A COLD FRONT, WEDNESDAY MAY THEN FEATURE MORE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSES.
BEYOND, THE CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAK, AND WARM
ADVECTION FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY ALLOW US
TO RECOVER INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF
JVL, RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL VIS REDUCTIONS AT THE FIELD. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THESE TRENDS IN THE 09Z AND 12Z UPDATES. STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF
MSN THROUGH DAYBREAK, THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED.
MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH ANTICIPATED WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
MAKES CONFIDENCE FAR TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTIONS IN THE 12Z
UPDATE. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND INSERT TEMPO/PREVAILING
GROUPS IF NECESSARY. MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING, WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. PRECIP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
REDUCED CIGS AND EVENTUAL CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS. EXPECT LLWS AT
ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
REGIONALLY.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 1122 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY TONIGHT
AS A SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE LAKE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS IT DEEPENS. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE SOUTHERN SHORES
OF THE HUDSON BAY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THUS
INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL BE MONITORING FOR GALE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE, FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
POSSIBLE GALES AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO. THEN, PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NEXT
WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
MONDAY- WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD, AS SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page