657
FXUS63 KMKX 191501 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1001 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING, BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT BRIEF VISIBILITY DROPS MAY OCCUR.
- FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
- GRADUAL WARM UP FOR START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1001 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
THEY ARE BEING DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA FROM A PASSING 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM, AS WELL AS FAIRLY ROBUST LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING,
BEFORE BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES WARM UP BY
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED,
BUT A BRIEF VISIBILITY DROP TO 1 TO 2 MILES MAY OCCUR.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR, THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET FAIRLY DRY. THERE IS A
LITTLE INSTABILITY, SO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER, WITH THE SHOWERS A LOW (UNDER 20 PERCENT) PROBABILITY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S, THOUGH IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT TEMPS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER
THIS CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL GREEN UP
AND GROWING HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED YET FOR SOUTHERN WI, COULD
SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP FOR SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GIVEN THIS
WAVE AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN THE COOLER
TEMPS COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/MIX AS WELL, BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TOPPING OFF IN THE 40S AGAIN. WILL
BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CALM WINDS, SUBSIDENCE, AND TEMPS AT TO
BELOW FREEZING MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FROST DEVELOPMENT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THEN EASTWARD FOR
MONDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
OVERALL FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL. START TO SEE TEMPS IN THE
70S RETURN ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TROUGH TO WORKS ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER
TUESDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN THERE LOOKS TO BE A LOW TRAVERSING
INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE MORE NORTH TO SOUTH TRAJECTORY OF THE COLD
FRONT, EXPECT IT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS COULD SEE
A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS FALLING FROM 60S/70S INTO THE 40S PRETTY QUICKLY.
ADDITIONALLY GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTING IN A BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN WI, CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TIME DIFFERENCES AND
OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRIER TREND
AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RECOVER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS EXCEEDING 70F. THEN LONG
RANGE MODELS ALIGN AND PROJECT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG DOWN
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WI LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION. THEN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1001 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING RAIN
SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES WARM UP BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT A BRIEF
VISIBILITY DROP TO 1 TO 2 MILES MAY OCCUR.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FEET
AGL SHOULD LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THAT OCCUR, THOUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON, AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL THIS EVENING, WITH
CLEAR SKIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THAT MOVE ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY
HAVE SOME CEILINGS BELOW 3500 FEET AGL.
MARINE
ISSUED 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FOR
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.
HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. THEN WINDS PICK UP FOR TUESDAY. MAY SEE A CONDITIONS
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL IN SOUTHERN WI NEARSHORES AS TUESDAY,
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE TREKKING ACROSS THE HUDSON
BAY REGION TUESDAY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE TURNING WINDS
MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. HOWEVER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN RIGHT BEHIND IT FOR MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES
A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH A DEVELOP SYSTEM TREKKING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST BRING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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