654
FXUS63 KMKX 221950
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (60-90 PERCENT CHANCE) EXPECTED
LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SRN MANITOBA ON THU, WHILE DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER WI. INCREASING SLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A N-S SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80F
FOR THU AFTERNOON.
FOR LATE THU EVENING AND FRI A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO WI, WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PASSES. THUS 60-90 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS ARE FORECAST. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THU EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A MCS WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM
THE MS RIVER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, 0-3 KM SHEAR IS 25-30 KTS AND CANNOT RULE OUT
BOWING STRUCTURES AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR MESO-VORTICES. THE CAMS
DO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES INTO SE WI DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE GUST FRONT
ACCELERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION,
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI, AND CANNOT RULE OUT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. THE MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI, BUT WILL COUNT ON SOME REDEVELOPMENT
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN PASS ON SAT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SELY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD INTO WI ON MON, WITH ANOTHER ROUND (60-80 PERCENT) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
AN INCH ARE REASONABLE. QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN TUE-WED
WITH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU, BUT THERE IS A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LATE TNT-THU AM. THERE IS
ALSO A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE LAKE TO SPILL ONTO THE
SHORELINE IN FAR SE WI LATE LATE TNT-FRI.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS 29.2 INCH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD. SOME 30 KT EASTERLY WINDS MAY
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN A BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, BOTH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. 29.4 INCH LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS (SUNDAY NIGHT) NEAR OR
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (MONDAY NIGHT), WITH GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL AND GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT (INTO TUESDAY). NOT SEEING WIDESPREAD GALE POTENTIAL
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON FOR BUILDING WAVES. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BREEZY
WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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