425
FXUS63 KMKX 240005
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
705 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (60-90 PERCENT CHANCE) EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. CAN'T RULE OUT
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN.
- SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN HALF OF WI. ISOLATED STORMS STILL POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S THIS WEEKEND; COOLER BY LAKE
MICHIGAN DUE TO LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (80-90 PERCENT CHANCE) AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED 705 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS TO WATCH HERE THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT IN WESTERN MN AND IA MOVES EAST TOWARD WISCONSIN.
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IN EASTERN IA AND WESTERN IL THERE ARE
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THAT ARE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST.
THESE STORMS ARE RIDING THE LINE OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
THAT REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST (SBCAPE ~ 2000 J/KG AND ~30 KTS
RESPECTIVELY). THESE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD IN THE WARM SECTOR COULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND MAYBE SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
IF THEY CAN GET TALL ENOUGH. AS THINGS STAND NOW ITS UNLIKELY
THAT THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MUCH WEAKER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THESE SCATTERED STORMS WILL WORK OVER WHAT WE DO HAVE IF THEY
MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST.
THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF STORMS
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO KS. THIS LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. MUCAPE IS
GENEROUSLY AROUND 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPE ISNT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVERTIME. THE GOOD LAPSE RATES THAT WE HAVE NOW TO SUPPORT HAIL
GROWTH WILL ALSO FALL OFF AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20-30 KTS THROUGH THE EVENT WHICH WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THAT THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN, IT WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED/BROKEN WITH TIME.
THIS WILL LEAVE STORMS ON A MORE MULTI TO SINGLE CELL SETUP SO
ANY WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS STORMS
MOVE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. AS MOISTURE RISES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT,
HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE COMMON. THE MAIN
IMPACTS STILL REMAIN ALONG THE ORDER OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
TYPE IMPACTS, BUT ANY STORMS THAT TRAIN A BIT OR SLOW THEIR
FORWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE THE ONES TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OVERALL
WESTERN WI CAN EXPECT AROUND 0.25-1 INCH OF RAIN, WHILE AREAS
FURTHER EAST TREND LOWER DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
STORMS. CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALLY HIGHER UP TO 2 INCHES FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN, BUT STORMS MOTION NEEDS TO BE SLOW OR TRAINING NEEDS
TO OCCUR TO ACTUALIZED THAT.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING AS THE PRIMARY THREATS ONCE WE REACH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 AM). RAIN MAY CONTINUE
TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
WILL BE WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN IA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESIDES, CAPE BUILDS,
AND INCREASING PVA PRIMES THE ENVIRONMENT. AT LEAST SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AND THESE WOULD BE THE STORMS TO
TRACK NEWD INTO SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS EARLY AS EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE A BIT WEAK AT 20 KTS,
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
STILL SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN MCS, TIED TO THE CURRENT STORMS OVER WRN IA,
WILL TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI AFTER 03Z-04Z. MUCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG MAY STILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION WITH SWLY 0-3KM
SHEAR AT 30KTS. WITH MUCH OF THE WIND SHEAR LOCATED IN THE LOW
LEVELS, BOWS AND SURGES ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL SUPPORT
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. MESOVORTEX GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY BOWS OR SURGES TOWARD THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
LAPSE WILL INITIALLY BE STEEP, A MOISTENING TROPOSPHERE WITH
PWATS RISING TO 1.3 INCHES WILL REDUCE THE LAPSE RATES BY LATE
EVENING AND AID IN PREVENTING GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE WINDS.
MOST CAMS THEN SUPPORT THE DIMINISHING STAGE OF THE MCS FOR ERN
WI AS THE OUTFLOW OUT RUNS THE LINE, BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST
60 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALL THE WAY
TO LAKE MI. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WHERE 2-3 ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE COLD FRONT FOR FRI WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT REACHING LAKE MI BY 18Z, BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF POST FRONTAL RAIN VIA MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH POPS OF 50-70 PERCENT, BUT LESSER
WEST OF MADISON. SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AFTERWARD, SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND LATE
AFTERNOON OVER ERN WI. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE
FORECAST.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
DUE TO RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLD LAKE
SURFACE. MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, AS THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE
REACHING SAID LOCATION.
THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, RESULTING IN MODEST NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, BOTH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL THEN BECOME EASTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING INTO MONDAY. 29.4 INCH LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS (SUNDAY NIGHT) NEAR OR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (MONDAY NIGHT),
WITH GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS BEHIND IT (INTO TUESDAY). NOT SEEING WIDESPREAD GALE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN PASS ON SAT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SELY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD INTO WI MON AND MON NT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND (70-90 PERCENT)
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
OF AN INCH ARE REASONABLE. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN
RETURN TUE-THU VIA WNWLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS AROUND NORMAL ARE
FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 705 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM WESTERN IA AND MN. AS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 1-3 KFT. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITH ANY OF THE RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH. AS THE
RAIN BECOMES MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS
COULD JUMP AROUND A BIT BETWEEN IFR TO MVFR UNTIL ROUGHLY 9Z.
THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES AROUND 2-4
SM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ANY
STORM/RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD DROP
VISIBILITES A BIT LOWER AT TIMES (ABOUT 1 SM). RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE
EAST. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH HE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND LOOSE THEIR GUSTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL WEAK FURTHER
AND BECOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TURN BECOMING
EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 223 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
DUE TO RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLD LAKE
SURFACE. MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, AS THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE
REACHING SAID LOCATION.
THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, RESULTING IN MODEST NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, BOTH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL THEN BECOME EASTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING INTO MONDAY. 29.4 INCH LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS (SUNDAY NIGHT) NEAR OR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (MONDAY NIGHT),
WITH GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS BEHIND IT (INTO TUESDAY). NOT SEEING WIDESPREAD GALE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON FOR
BUILDING WAVES.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
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