915
FXUS63 KMKX 241835
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
135 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S THIS WEEKEND; COOLER BY LAKE
MICHIGAN DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (80-90 PERCENT CHANCE) AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 135 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT EXITS, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
(AT LEAST IN THE WEST) AND LIGHT WINDS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
COOLER CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW, ASIDE FROM COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE
LAKE UNDER ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SAT NIGHT.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 135 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, WITH MILDER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM AROUND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EARLY MONDAY TO ROUGHLY NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE WARMER TEMPS, HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND RESULTANT
GREATER INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 50 KT LLJ
OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOLD SHEAR,
BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A LOT OF
QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH THE SEVERE CHANCES THOUGH, AS THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW TRACK AMONG MODELS. ADDITIONALLY,
A COUPLE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING, WHICH WOULD LIKELY DAMPEN THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WARM SECTOR COULD STAY MAINLY SOUTH AS WELL, WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN POSSIBLY SHARPENING
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. GIVEN
THE LATEST MODELS AND UNCERTAINTIES, IT'S CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 AND ALSO AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
WOULD HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ON
MONDAY, GIVEN LATEST MODELS PUSH THE ~1.50" PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WOULD BE A CONCERN GIVEN SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS
REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FINER
DETAILS OF THE SEVERE STORM AND FLOODING CHANCES TO CHANGE
THOUGH, GIVEN THIS SYSTEMS IS STILL 3 DAYS OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER MUCH OF THIS
TIME, THOUGH A SHORTWAVE OR TWO MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES AT TIMES. TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN WILL RUN NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 135 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. TOWARDS THE LAKE, NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS AMONG MODELS WITH WHAT THESE
CLOUD BASES WOULD BE, WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES TONIGHT, PICKING
UP FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 135 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND THE WESTERN U.P. TONIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE,
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FULLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 29.4 INCH LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM AROUND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY MONDAY TO
LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THIS LOW. THE COOLER LAKE TEMPS SHOULD DAMPEN THE THREAT FOR
GALES ACROSS THE LAKE, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON TUESDAY.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page