519
FXUS63 KMKX 250452
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1152 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S THIS WEEKEND; COOLER BY
LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (80-90 PERCENT CHANCE) AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AROUND DAWN. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX
OUT AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PROMOTING DRY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S INLAND, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE LAKE OWING
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A FEW AREAS ALONG THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY
MAY REACH 70. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LEANS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1123 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, MODEL VARIANCE
REGARDING THE LOW TRACK REMAINS HIGH BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND CAMS, AND EVEN WITHIN THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES. AT THIS
TIME, THE CURRENT ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS HAS THE LOW TRACKING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE WI/IL BORDER TO AS FAR NORTH AS PASSING OVER
DULUTH, MN. GIVEN THE SOLUTIONS, VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS MAY
PLAY OUT ON MONDAY REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
IF A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OCCURS, THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
WOULD BE ALLOWED TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WI. AS THIS
HAPPENS, SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MONDAY MORNING. WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW, WE'D RECOVER FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EVENING STORMS ALONG A
COLD FRONT, WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
IF A SOUTHERLY TRACK PANS OUT, WE WOULD LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET
THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE STATE AS EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN STYMIES THE NORTHWARD PROGESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT. WE'D LIKELY STILL SEE RAIN IN THIS SCENARIO, PERHAPS
HEAVY AT TIMES, AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS OVER THE WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH, BUT MOST OF THE SURFACE- ROOTED STRONGER STORMS
WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN ILLINOIS.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES. FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, CHARACTERIZED
BY PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW, RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS, AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY
DEFINITIVELY BUT FROST HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED BY NEXT WEEKEND
IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1109 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
DRY AIR DID NOT MOVE IN FAST ENOUGH TO MIX OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. INLAND, SOME FOG MAY BRIEFLY FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL WI. TOMORROW, CLOUDS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE SHOULD SCATTER OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 1106 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
WESTERN U.P. THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE,
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT, AS THE DRIER AIR
MASS HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE, BUT FOG IS EXPECTED TO
EASE AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
FROM AROUND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY MONDAY TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THE
COOLER LAKE TEMPS SHOULD DAMPEN THE THREAT FOR GALES ACROSS THE
LAKE, BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW ON TUESDAY.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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