410
FXUS63 KMKX 040506
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1206 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCES) REMAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH
STRONGER STORMS.
- WARMER AND BREEZY MONDAY, THEN COOLER THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- FROST MAY OCCUR TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1206 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE BY DAYBREAK, BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
MID/LATE MORNING IT THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE
LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. KEPT PRECIP
CHANCES CAPPED AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH GIVEN THE CONCERN OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND NAM HAD
MUCH TOO HIGH DEWPOINTS THIS LAST AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS, AND THESE MODELS PUSH THE DEWPOINTS
INTO THE MID 50S TOMORROW AND ARE THUS HIGHER WITH THE PRECIP
CHANCES. THE RAP/HRRR DEWPOINTS WERE CLOSER TO REALITY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ARE ALSO LOWER TOMORROW, WITH LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS. STILL THINK A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
GUSTIER WINDS GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS.
THINK THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
A BIT MILDER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS LIKELY
APPROACHING 80 ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
TOMORROW EVENING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, GIVEN SOME LINGERING
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH IN THIS SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN, SO KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1206 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. COULD SEE SOME FROST TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT
GIVEN THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL BOTH NIGHTS.
A MORE ACTIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1206 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN BE BREEZY
MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORM WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTIER WINDS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH
THE SHOWERS/STORMS GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY EVENING.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1206 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE OF 29.0 INCHES MOVING
ACROSS ONTARIO. A SHORT 6 HOUR PERIOD OF GALES IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 10AM AND 4PM
CDT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TOMORROW. WINDS THEN EASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE LAKE AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN EASE OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT AND PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OCCURING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR AT TIMES
AS VARIOUS WEAK SURFACE RIDGES MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...10 AM MONDAY TO 4
PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM
MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY.
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