958
FXUS63 KMKX 051846
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
146 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
FROST POTENTIAL. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN THURSDAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
READINGS TRENDING UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF ON & OFF SHOWERS & STORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 147 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
HIGH DIURNAL CUMULUS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20-25 MPH AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR, WINDS DIMINISH, AND LOW DEW POINTS
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. FROST IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING
AREAS WHICH MAY SEE LOCAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES. A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AWAY FROM
WALWORTH, KENOSHA, RACINE, MILWAUKEE, AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES. FROST
WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER DRY DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY, BUT LESS
GUSTY THAN TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S INLAND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE A WEAK AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE SIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
CONTINUING COLD AIRMASS, EXPECTING FROST POTENTIAL AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 30S.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH,
WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN
IN THE MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON,
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE, USHERING IN A WARMER AIRMASS FROM
THE PLAINS AND BRINGING A RETURN TO UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO
UPPER 30S. PATCHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT LOOKING LESS
LIKELY AS TRENDS TOWARD MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAIL IN THE
LATEST MODELING.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 147 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
SYNOPSIS: NORTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM, WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES & SURFACE
FRONTAL PASSAGES SUPPORTING CONTINUED ON & OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY
PREDOMINANTLY WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
HOLDING TEMPERATURES NEAR EARLY-MID MAY NORMALS. THE SURFACE PATTERN
WILL TREND HIGHER IN AMPLITUDE NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR MORE
PROLONGED PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN SURFACE FRONTAL
PASSAGES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SAID WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY: THE FIRST SHOWER & STORM CHANCES OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE
FORECAST ALONG AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC & ENSEMBLE-BASED FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE WAVE WILL TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS BORDER, PLACING THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER
THE SOUTHERN ~HALF OF THE CWA. ACTUAL PRECIP PROBS REMAIN IN THE ~20-
40% RANGE, WITH VALUES BEING DRIVEN DOWN SOME BY LINGERING
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE WAVE'S PASSAGE. ANTICIPATE
THAT THESE VALUES WILL TREND UP SOME OVER COMING FORECASTS AS
GUIDANCE COMES INTO AGREEMENT ON PRECISE WAVE TIMING. INITIAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAK MUCAPE/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE PRESENT, WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS BEING FOR
VALUES TO BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ANY STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY: THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE & SURFACE FRONT
ARRIVE OVER THE REGION, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS &
STORMS. CONTINUED A WIDE (~24 HOURS) RANGE OF CHANCE (~25-45%)
PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THIS FORECAST GIVEN REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING TIMING OF THE WAVE & FRONTAL PASSAGES. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
ARE BEGINNING TO HONE IN ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT FOR FAVORED
TIMING, WITH A WIDER ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING STILL APPARENT IN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. WILL BE REFINING (& LIKELY INCREASING) PRECIP
PROBABILITIES AS TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS BECOMES CLEARER OVER
COMING FORECASTS. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, INITIAL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO BE TOO LOW IN MAGNITUDE TO SUPPORT ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: PASSING WAVES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE &
COLD FRONTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS & STORMS. NOT
EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME, AS
INTERMEDIATE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS & PROVIDING MORE DETAILS AS THIS
PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 147 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL
CUMULUS AROUND 7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN OVERCAST CIRRUS
DECK AROUND 25,000 FT. TONIGHT, MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
AS CUMULUS DIMINISH. DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND 7000 FT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, QUICKLY BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS POSSIBLE INLAND OVERNIGHT, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH GENERALLY
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KT. DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY,
INLAND TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 15 KT WHILE LAKE
MICHIGAN TERMINALS MAY SEE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO MORE VARIABLE WINDS.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 147 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TO LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
WISCONSIN, BRINGING SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO THE LAKE. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MULTIPLE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA. A COLD
FRONT WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-
WIZ069...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
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