343
FXUS63 KMKX 070612
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
112 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL FROST CHANCES TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WI,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS CENTRAL WI.
- SMALL CHANCES (10-30%) FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THRU SATURDAY.
- WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE 60S, THEN
CLOSER TO 70).
- ROUGHLY 60% CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL NEXT TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 100 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM CDT THIS
MORNING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOW 30S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FLAT. SOME AREAS COULD EASILY FALL
TO THE UPPER 20S, PARTICULARLY WEST OF A GREEN LAKE TO
BURLINGTON LINE (WHERE CLOUDS CLEARED OUT FASTER THIS EVENING).
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
(WARMEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST WI). A WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 10 MPH
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 20 IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KICK IN LATER
THIS MORNING, SUBSIDING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHEASTERLY
LAKE BREEZE MAY PUSH BACK AGAINST IT, CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE UNTIL THE PREVAILING WINDS SUBSIDE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.
A PASSING 500MB TROUGH AND A POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY FORM
SOME OPEN CELLULAR (POPCORN-STYLE) LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE
BROKEN HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY, THOUGH WE'VE REDUCED
RAIN CHANCES TO 10-30%. FOR MOST AREAS, THESE RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT IS GROWING LESS
LIKELY WITH TIME (15% CHANCE OR LESS). RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVERAGE ERODE QUICKLY AS THE SUN ANGLE DECREASES THIS EVENING,
LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 100 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE PLUMES SHOW A CONTINUED WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR A
SHORELINE LAKE BREEZE FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
NO LAKE BREEZE SATURDAY. THE WARMTH SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SHOULD FORM A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE / STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA OVER
IL ON FRIDAY, WITH ONLY 5-15% CHANCES FOR STRAY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
THAT TO MEANDER INTO SOUTHERN WI. FOR SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT (EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE)
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN, WITH THE SURFACE TO 700MB WAA
REFOCUSING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON (PLENTY OF DISPERSION ON THE EXACT
TIME). THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT (THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY), BUT THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DECREASES SATURDAY'S PRECIP CHANCES FROM ~45%
TO ~25% ON ACCOUNT OF A DRIER AND WELL MIXED PBL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR BOTH THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOWER CHANCES, A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WEAK IF APPLICABLE, AND ENSEMBLE + DETERMINISTIC MODEL CAPE HAS
DECREASED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST ITERATION. AS SUCH, THE "SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER" WORDING HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, WITH A NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC BREEZE AND SHORELINE LAKE BREEZE
POSSIBLE. PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAKER WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE LAKE BREEZE (AT LEAST 1 COUNTY INLAND,
PROGRESSING FURTHER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON), KEEPING SHORELINE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, THOUGH INLAND TEMPERATURES MODERATE UPWARDS
A FEW DEGREES. THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
THE ONLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CHANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
TUESDAY (~60%) ON ACCOUNT OF A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM, WITH A
RELATIVELY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE FAST
MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM OUGHT TO LIMIT THE EXPECTED QPF, WITH
THE GEFS ONLY RESOLVING 10-20% CHANCES OF REACHING HALF AN INCH. THE
ARRIVAL TIME AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 100 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
DRY WEATHER, VFR CONDITIONS, AND NEARLY CALM WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 8,000 FT
WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS DAWN THIS MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME POST-DAWN THIS MORNING, VEERING DUE
WEST TOWARDS MID DAY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED, WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE BREEZE
WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH AGAINST THESE PREVAILING WINDS EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON (AND MIGHT REACH SHORELINE TERMINALS); IT SHOULD MAKE
MORE INLAND PROGRESS AS BOTH WIND FIELDS SUBSIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A 10-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS (MAINLY BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM
CDT), AND WOULD BE POPCORN STYLE / SCATTERED SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT
HAS BEEN EXCLUDED FROM ALL TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. OUR BEST
GUESS IS THAT MOST / ALL OF THE ATTEMPTED PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND (VIRGA). CLOUD CEILINGS WITH THE
SHOWERS / VIRGA WILL BE VFR (OVER 5,000 FT, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
9,000 FT).
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING SHUTS OFF THIS EVENING,
LEAVING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND VFR FOR TONIGHT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 100 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CONTINUING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5
INCHES TRACKING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC FOR
SATURDAY BEFORE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2
INCHES BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 8 AM
THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
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