855
FXUS63 KMKX 090011
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
711 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY ALONG AND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SRN WI.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80 PERCENT) FOR
TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED 710 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
CURRENTLY MONITORING THE BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI, PRODUCING SOME VIRGA VISIBLE ON
RADAR. PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING / TONIGHT
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 20% OR LESS, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
REDUCED AS SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE PBL / RL WINS THE BATTLE.
500-700MB LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, SO I CANNOT COMPLETELY WRITE OFF AN ISOLATED BRIEF
SPIT OF RAIN JUST YET.
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY REMAIN AT 20-30%, WITH A NARROW /
BRIEF AXIS OF OPEN CELLULAR SHOWERS RIPPLING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 10 AM AND 7 PM BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 137 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY:
A MILD AND DRY AIR MASS RESIDES OVER SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON VIA
SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TNT. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER CENTRAL MN
WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
CONTINUED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER SRN WI. A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN FOLLOW LATE TNT. SOME OF THE FCST
SOUNDINGS BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS AT TIMES
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT QPF ON THE CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
WILL FORECAST 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR A BRIEF SHOWER TNT.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS
IS HIGHLIGHTED A BIT ON THE MODELS OVER SW WI AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES OCCUR. GIVEN STILL, A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS,
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT 20-40 PERCENT. NWLY SFC WINDS AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
SUN-MON. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY MAY
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SMALL SHOWER CHANCES GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW ON
MON. ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
SRN WI DURING THIS BRIEF COOL PERIOD.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 137 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE, WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS WI ON
TUE. A WELL ORGANIZED SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WED NT-THU AM FOLLOWED BY A
JET STREAM PATTERN CHANGE TO QUASI-ZONAL FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 700 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 10,000 FT ARE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WI AT THE MOMENT, BRINGING SOME LIGHT VIRGA VISIBLE ON
RADAR. ONLY FORECASTING ~15% RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND CEILINGS / VISIBILITY
SHOULD EASILY REMAIN VFR. LIGHT SW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER WSW WINDS AT THE 2,000 FT LEVEL (ROUGHLY 35KT) WILL BE
PRESENT FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM) AND MAY RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL LLWS. THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHEAR IS BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR RADAR'S VAD WIND PROFILE
FOR INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS
VEERING NW AND BECOMING GUSTY BEHIND IT BY MIDDAY. 30% CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS,
AND REFLECT THE EXPECTED VFR CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 137 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES ALONG THE MINNESOTA AND CANADIAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
ITS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEST TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT, AND WEST ON SATURDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THE
WINDS TO NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3
INCHES IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY
TO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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