973
FXUS63 KMKX 091037 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
537 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS (10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCES) TODAY, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH
SOME FROST POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS HIGH SHOWER CHANCES (80 PERCENT) FOR
TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH SOME 925 TO 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS LAGGING BEHIND IT. THIS
MAY BRING A DECAYING AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR BELOW 5000 FEET AGL, SO THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA THAT OCCURS
AND THUS THE LOWER END CHANCES.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SHOWER OR SPRINKLE DEVELOPMENT WITH
PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, MAINLY TOWARD SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN HAVE DRY LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME WITH
GOOD MIXING. HAVE 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
DURING THIS PERIOD, HIGHEST TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE, MILD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
LAKESHORE AREAS THIS EVENING, SHIFTING WINDS BRIEFLY
NORTH/NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH LOWS
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S INLAND PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR SOME
FROST TO DEVELOP. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALOFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE RESIDUAL LAYER BENEATH AND SOME
VIRGA EVIDENT ON RADAR. 850-700MB WAA AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED FGEN MAY
MANAGE TO PRODUCE SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES OF RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE CAPPED AT
~15% OR LESS.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME 20-30 MPH GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED, STRONGER GUSTS
TO ~35 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH THE SYNOPTIC BREEZE
SPREADING THE WARMTH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE SHORELINE. AN AXIS
OF OPEN CELLULAR LIGHT RAINSHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TODAY, AIDED BY SOME 500MB PVA. BUT, SIMILAR TO
THE ONGOING ALTOCUMULUS / VIRGA, IT'S LIKELY TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND, LEAVING ONLY ~15% OR LESS RAIN CHANCES.
NORTHWEST WINDS DECELERATE AND SKY COVER DECREASES TONIGHT, WITH
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA (TOWARDS CENTRAL WI, LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S),
LIKELY TOO WARM ELSEWHERE.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH A
REDEVELOPING NW BREEZE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
AGAINST THIS SYNOPTIC FLOW AND HOLD SHORELINE TEMPERATURES TO THE
LOW/MID 50S, THOUGH OUR CURRENT FORECAST SPREADS 60 DEGREE HIGHS
RIGHT UP TOWARDS THE SHORELINE. DRY WEATHER LOOKING LIKELY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL FOR FROST
IN INLAND AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CWA TOWARDS CENTRAL WI (LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S). CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LOOKING LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING
STEADY (AROUND 60) FOR INLAND AREAS. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW
WILL ALLOW A HEALTHY EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE TO FORM, LIKELY HOLDING
SHORELINE HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOW 50S. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
DELIVERING 80% RAIN CHANCES. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL QPF FALLS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI (08.12Z ECMWF) OR LAKE SUPERIOR (08.18Z GFS), WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS PREDAWN TUESDAY
AND EXITING EAST AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING (THE PRECIP WOULD ONLY
LAST A SMALL FRACTION OF THAT WINDOW IN ANY CASE). THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES (PARTICULARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON), BUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LOOKING LIKELY
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY OF A FAST-PROPAGATING CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRYING TO DRAW SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE AND BUILD INSTABILITY.
THAT SAID, THE ODDS OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 500 JOULES CAPE ON
THE GEFS HAS INCREASED TO 40-50% OVER SOUTHWESTERN WI, AND AT
LEAST 3 OF 30 VIEWABLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS APPROACH 1000 JOULES
SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION, HENCE WE'RE NOT COMPLETELY IN THE CLEAR
YET. THE INTENSITY, PROPAGATION SPEED, AND TRACK OF THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM. RIDGING IN THE JET
STREAM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE MIDWESTERN CONUS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, YIELDING A WARMING TREND. AS SEEN ON THE CPC
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS, THE RIDGING AND WARMING
TREND ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION PERIOD AND BEYOND.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS MAY BRING A DECAYING AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO CONTEND WITH, SO THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA THAT
OCCURS INSTEAD OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE REACHING THE GROUND.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SHOWER OR SPRINKLE DEVELOPMENT WITH
PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, MAINLY TOWARD SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THERE IS AGAIN DRY LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME WITH GOOD
MIXING, SO VIRGA MAY OCCUR. ANY CEILINGS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
5000 TO 7000 FEET AGL.
OTHERWISE, WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKESHORE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING, SHIFTING WINDS BRIEFLY NORTH/NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN 5000 TO 7000 FOOT AGL CLOUDS DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE WESTERN SHORELINE
THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH
WINDS BEHIND IT.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY TO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES SHOULD THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF IT, VEERING WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHEPPARD/WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...NOON
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
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