905
FXUS63 KMKX 171123
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
623 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
- MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON THEN
AGAIN LATE MON NT INTO TUE, BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN THE MORNING TIMING OF POTENTIAL MCSS.
- COOL AND DRIER WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR WED-THU.
UPDATE
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM IOWA
THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS AREN'T EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE, ANY STRONGER ONES WILL FEATURE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING DOWN LAKE MI AND
WILL ARRIVE IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA AROUND 1 AM CDT AND MKE AROUND
4 AM CDT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, A WEST TO EAST LINE OF SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NE IA INTO SW WI, PROBABLY
TRIGGERED BY ELEVATED WARM, MOIST ADVECTION. A SSWLY LOW LEVEL
JET OF 35-40 KT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN IA AND NOSE INTO
FAR SRN WI TOWARD 10Z SO EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR THE IL BORDER WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL
WEAKEN RESULTING IN MUCAPE FALLING BELOW 500 J/KG. STILL
EXPECTING SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS TNT.
OTHERWISE, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUN AM INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN 850-700 MB WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION AND A MCV MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MCV WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE SEVERE CONVECTION OVER SRN IA AND NRN MO TNT AND
LIFT NEWD INTO SRN WI AFTER 12Z. THE REMNANTS OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS FROM NE TO SRN IA AND NRN MO MAY ACCOMPANY THE MCV OR
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DROP TO 5.5-6.0 C/KM
DURING THIS TIME SO ELEVATED CAPE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SFC WARM FRONT
WILL NOT REACH A LINE FROM MADISON TO KENOSHA UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BUT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR 80F ONCE IT
PASSES. HIGH TEMPS TOWARD CENTRAL WI SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
60S WITH 50 AND 60S AT THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK FROM ERN NE TO NW WI BY
12Z MON, WHILE A DECAYING MCS FROM SRN MN AND IA MAY BE
ARRIVING AFTER 09Z MON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
ONTARIO DURING THE DAY, BUT WILL AID IN CONTINUED WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION OVER SRN WI. A MCV MAY ALSO BE PRESENT WITHIN THE
DECAYING MCS, AND WILL FORECAST 60-70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SCT STORMS. THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS VERY
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MORNING ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
THERE MAY BE A LACK OF FORCING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS TO NRN WI BY 12Z TUE, WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO NW WI. THE ACTUAL
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT PASS UNTIL TUE, BUT THERE IS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MON
NT-TUE AM GIVEN SRN WI REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AREAS OF NEW
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND POSSIBLE MCSS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS VERY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MORNING TIMING.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW FOR WED-THU
WITH LGT SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION RETURNING LATE THU INTO
SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THUS HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU WILL
RETURN TO THE 70S WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MI FOR FRI, THEN 70S
OVER ALL OF SRN WI ON SAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS
FORECAST FRI NT-SAT.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 618 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, WITH SCATTERED STORMS THEN LINGERING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE IN, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO LOW VFR TO MVFR, WITH OTHER POTENTIAL DROPS IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY DUE TO VIS RESTRICITION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY,
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY, WITH
CEILINGS GIVING WAY TO SCT TO FEW SKYCON TONIGHT. MORE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL TRACK TO FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MAINLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTHERLY AND BECOMING
GUSTY. AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM LATER TODAY AND EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP HARBOR FOR MON-TUE DUE TO
PERSISTENT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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