397
FXUS63 KMKX 200422
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1122 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, BUT COOLER TODAY (WEDNESDAY) THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
- EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (40-70%), WITH
LOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1120 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
CLOUDS LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HELP INSULATE TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THEY COULD, BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN
THE 40S OVERNIGHT. IF THERE IS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNRISE, COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW INLAND LOCATION DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S.
OTHERWISE THE MIDWEEK PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL, EXPECTING
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUS, TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE AND
INLAND TO ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE. MAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F, WITH COOLEST TEMPS CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
MEANWHILE WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE WILL BE LESS INFLUENCED
FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW, BUT STILL LOOKING AT DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S. THURSDAY IS ACTUALLY LOOKING SLIGHTLY COOLER FURTHER
INLAND GIVING THE EASTERLY AS COMPARED TO THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TODAY (WEDNESDAY). HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON A
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO THE STRONGER
TEMP GRADIENT PAIRED WITH ENHANCEMENT OF THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THUS THIS COULD PUSH THE COOLER TEMPS
INLAND FASTER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST, BUT
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL PRETTY QUICK BEHIND THIS LAKE BREEZE/FRONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND
UPPER 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
40S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE 40S WITH
PREVAILING EAST WINDS AS WELL.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1120 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DESCEND DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAIN THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY
FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH
MINNESOTA FRIDAY, A SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PULL UP FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WEAK WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO COMBINED WITH THE LIFT THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY BY FAR LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN WITH POPS AROUND 60-80% FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS ARE TRENDING LATER IN THE DAY WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVEL THAT WILL DELAY ONSET
AND GUIDANCE OVERALL TRENDING A BIT LATER IN THE DAY. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES I COULD SEE THE ONSET OF RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW
STORMS TRENDING A BIT LATER YET.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A
BIT WEAKER. GIVEN THIS AND THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION ACROSS MODELS, POPS ARE HOVERING AROUND 15-25%. WAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
SATURDAY AND MID 60S TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY. SO THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE THERE AND MOISTURE, IT WILL JUST DEPEND ON WHERE AND
WHEN THIS LARGER SCALE LIFT MOVES THROUGH. REGARDLESS THIS
SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE SCATTERED THAN FRIDAY.
DEFINITELY NOT A WASH OUT.
A QUICK AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO TRY TO TRAVERSE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT UNSURE IF THIS
WILL ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE. WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON
THE WEAKER SIDE THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PREVENT ANY SHOWERS AND
500MB CLUSTERS LOOK TO KEEP THE RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. I'M SURE
THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRYING TO BRING MORE MOISTURE
AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH TO JUSTIFY THE LOW POP
(10-20%). EITHER WAY, THE BETTER ORGANIZATION IS TO THE SOUTH,
WHICH MEANS AT WORST IT WOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
EVEN IF THOSE FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD OUT. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MID WEEK WITH A RETURN TO THE 80S.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 1120 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
STILL SOME POCKETS OF LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3KFT, BUT
OTHERWISE SEEING WITH VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 3.2-4KFT OR SWATHS OF
CLEARING CONTINUE TONIGHT. EXPECT THE VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE, STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
MID-LEVEL DIURNAL DRIVEN CUMULUS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BUT WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD EVEN SEE
SOME LOWER MVFR SNEAK IN FOR SOME OF THE EASTERN LAKESHORE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. AS FOR WINDS, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
GRADUALLY PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP
AND SURGE INLAND BRINGING BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT
THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 1120 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
LINGERING GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL LOOKING AT GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE AND BUILDING WAVES ALONG THE WESTERN LAKESHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECTING WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE PLAINS.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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