825
FXUS63 KMKX 210430
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1130 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK AT BEACHES IN
MILWAUKEE, RACINE, AND KENOSHA COUNTIES.
- EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) RETURN FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH
LOWER CHANCES (10-20%) THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. DESPITE THE FORCING FROM THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW DUE TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 8-10 KFT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A
FEW SPRINKLES, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE
CLOUDS WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY,
PARTICULARLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS. LINGERING
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER THAN TONIGHT.
A HIGH SWIM RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MILWAUKEE, RACINE, AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. LIFE THREATENING WAVES
AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY, THEN PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKELY TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES. ONE
CONCERN IS THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD AMONG MODELS WITH THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW, WITH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING LOWER PRECIP CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY AIR IN
THE MID- LEVELS, WHICH COULD ALSO LIMIT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. IN
GENERAL THOUGH, THERE REMAINS ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TO
KEEP 40-70% CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN EARLY SATURDAY.
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS LARGELY DRY, THOUGH MODELS
DO HINT AT A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROLLING THROUGH AT SOME
POINT. WITH MILDER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA SAT-MON, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS IF THE FORCING WITH THE WAVES IS STRONG ENOUGH.
WARM TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK, WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AS WELL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IF A WAVE OR TWO PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. DESPITE THE FORCING FROM THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW DUE TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 8-10 KFT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A
FEW SPRINKLES, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY ON THURSDAY, EXCEPT FOR NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.4 INCHES CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING WILL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.8 INCHES LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW,
THOUGH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY BELOW GALE FORCE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THOUGH WAVES MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT SOUTHWARD. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. CHANGES TO THE ONGOING ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
EVENTUALLY NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 1 PM
THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644...10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
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