845
FXUS63 KMKX 220442
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1142 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK AT BEACHES IN MILWAUKEE,
RACINE, AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. THE BEACHES IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES HAVE A HIGH SWIM RISK BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST WI, WITH LOWER CHANCES (20-30%)
AT TIMES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1142 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING IT DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TOMORROW.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT, PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST LOW TRACK HAS CONTINUED PER THE LATEST
MODELS, WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND DEEPER EXPECTED TO
MISS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE LINGERING CLOUDS, TEMPS
SHOULD RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR COOLER
CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.
A HIGH SWIM RISK CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MILWAUKEE, RACINE, AND KENOSHA COUNTIES, EXPANDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIFE THREATENING WAVES AND CURRENTS
ARE EXPECTED.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1142 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
A SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. STILL A SMALL CHANCE THOUGH THAT AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS COMES THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER END FOR ANY PRECIP, SO KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MEMORIAL DAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS WELL.
WARM TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK,
WITH SOME INSTABILITY SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IF A WAVE OR TWO PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1142 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING, WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. EAST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, PICKING
UP A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MORE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT TIMES NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TOMORROW.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1142 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.4 INCHES CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OF 29.9 INCHES LIFTS NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF NORTH
POINT LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT, GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD TO
SHEBOYGAN FRIDAY. THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THE CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 4 PM
SATURDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
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