482
FXUS63 KMKX 230011 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
711 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT INTO LATE TONIGHT FOR A
HIGH SWIM RISK AT BEACHES IN SHEBOYGAN, OZAUKEE, MILWAUKEE,
RACINE, AND KENOSHA COUNTIES.
- EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
- THERE ARE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES OR DRIZZLE (15-30%) OVER SE WI
TONIGHT. THE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN/STORM CHANCES OF 20-50% ARE THEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND SHOWER CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 711 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SPRINKLES MAY CLIP THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY BRUSHING SOUTHEAST AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN MILDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. OVERALL, THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 130 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOW
TO CENTRAL MS VALLEY SWING NNE INTO THE CENTRAL GL REGION. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF US BUT
PARTS OF FAR EASTERN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI MAY GET SOME
SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES THROUGH.
MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME AND
LATEST TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS (15-30%) BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME PVA LINGERING IN MODELS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO BRING A SHOWER BUT LACK OF FORCING SEEMS TO BE THE
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR SHOWER CHANCES.
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE LARGELY EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR WEAK ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND THE FRONT MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS.
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE RISK WITH THIS IS
QUITE SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY CONNECTED WITH THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION THE FRONTAL FEATURE WILL WEAK TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND INSTABILITY WILL FIZZLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST INTO
THE EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR A RUMBLES OF THUNDER LOOK TO BE
WESTERN AND MORE SPECIFICALLY WEST CENTRAL WI BUT WE CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI INTO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GL REGION CONNECTED WITH THE MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME PRECIP. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE LAKE WHERE
THE BETTER FORCING IS BUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
ARE CONNECTED ENOUGH TO WHERE WE COULD SEE PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS
MADISON. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THIS EITHER
BUT CHANCES GENERALLY APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT BY THE AFTERNOON WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLEARS
OUT AND DRIER AIR SLIDES IN IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS. WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST WINDS
BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE 3-4 FOOT RANGE THOUGH LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET AS WINDS AND THUS WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BEACH HAZARDS WILL EXPAND
BY 4PM TO OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES AS WAVES BECOME A BIT
HIGHER FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEARSHORE OF THE LAKE. I HAVE
SHORTENED THE BACKEND AS WAVES LOOK LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 3FT
LATER TONIGHT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 130 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES LOOK
WEAK OVERALL GIVEN LARGELY RIDGING ALOFT WITH LIMITED SHORTWAVE
IMPACTS SEEN AT THIS TIME AND FOR THE MOST PART HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. SOME FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EVEN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD APPEARS FAIRLY DRY BUT GIVEN
THE WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK WITH SOME DECENT
SURFACE MOISTURE WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE
BASED PRECIP/STORMS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE BEST CHANCES
AS AN INTERRUPTION TO THE PATTERN BUT MONDAY WILL FEATURE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN PARTS OF WI BUT IT MAY END UP BEING TOO
DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ANYTHING TO REALLY BE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 711 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SPRINKLES MAY CLIP THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY BRUSHING SOUTHEAST AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
AREA. LOWER CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TOMORROW, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AT
LEAST THE EAST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS MAY THEN MOVE THROUGH WEST
TO EAST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN THOUGH LATE EVENING, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KNOTS EXPECTED MOST PLACES LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 130 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.4 INCHES CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NE
US WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE EAST WHILE STRENGTHENING. MODEST TO
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT, WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.9
INCHES LIFTS NORTHEAST TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST PUSHES OUT AND A WEAK FRONT PULLS
THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL ONLY 9Z NOW AS
WAVES WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE BUT WILL DEFINITELY FALL
BELOW THRESHOLDS LATER TONIGHT.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 4 AM
SATURDAY.
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