223
FXUS63 KMKX 231400
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BY MEMORIAL DAY.
- 40-50% PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI, SLOWLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS S WI THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED 900 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO THE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN SW TO NW WI ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION. THESE SHOWERS MAY
BE SHORT LIVED, BUT LIKELY HITTING THE GROUND AS CLOUD BASES ARE
AROUND 4-6KFT. NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED FROM THIS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND SO FAR REFLECTIVITY AT
-10C HAS PEAKED AT 20DBZ AND QUICKLY DECREASED.
ANOTHER NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS SET TO COME INTO SW WI AROUND 3-4PMISH
BEFORE SLOWLY DRAGGING EASTWARD TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. SOME LIGHTNING LOOKS POSSIBLE,
BUT MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS IN THE 0 TO +10C RANGE WITH AN
INVERSION AROUND 0C. SO, SOME SHOWERS COULD HIT, BUT LIGHTNING
WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST BASED ON THE RAP AND OTHER MESOMODELS.
HALBACH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1058 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT, PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES BRUSHING THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND YET ANOTHER DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COOLER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL RETURN TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE MAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP IT A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA. UPSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS OVER IOWA ARE BOOSTING CONFIDENCE A BIT IN THE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATER TOMORROW.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY UNDER A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
A HIGH SWIM RISK CONTINUES INTO LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LAKESHORE COUNTIES. LIFE THREATENING WAVES AND
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1058 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
MONDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THERE'S A
SMALL CHANCE THOUGH THAT AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS COMES THROUGH
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
IS DECREASING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY
ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS WELL.
WARM TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK,
WITH SOME INSTABILITY SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IF A WAVE OR TWO PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
IT THEN LOOKS COOLER AND DRIER LATE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 541 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MVFR CIGS OVER ERN WI THIS MORNING BECOMING SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 541 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.8 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
TO LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR TONIGHT. MODEST TO BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER FAR NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO MODEST EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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