171
FXUS63 KMKX 240014 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
714 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20 TO 50 PERCENT) SHOULD SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING, PERHAPS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST BEFORE EXITING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING.
- SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SHIFT
ONSHORE IN THE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATER THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME, BUT
WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
- SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME,
AND MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS FOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
- EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BY MEMORIAL DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 714 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
WEAK DIFFERENTIAL CVA ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE AREA AS WELL, WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS (20 TO 50 PERCENT) SHOULD SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE EXITING. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AS WELL INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
THE WEAK INSTABILITY.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS INTO TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STATUS
CLOUDS AND FOG TO PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN,
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING BACK OFFSHORE. NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME, THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND SEE IF LOWER VISIBILITY DEVELOPS. THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG FURTHER INLAND AS WELL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY,
WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODEST WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INLAND, WITH A SOUTHEAST LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER MOST INLAND AREAS, WITH
TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER NEAR THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS ON THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY SOME BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WATCHING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CONVERGENCE/FORCING/MOISTURE THAT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND
BRING A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MESO GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE TIMING AND ENVIRONMENT AS THIS COMES THROUGH SW WI
AROUND 21-02Z AND THROUGH SE WI BETWEEN 2-8Z. SBCAPE OF ABOUT
300-500 J/KG DEVELOPS ALONG THIS NARROW CORRIDOR WITH THE
RAP/NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING THIS UNSTABLE LAYER BEING
BETWEEN 850-650MB OR 0 TO +10C. MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FAIRLY WARM,
SO AM DOUBTFUL THAT WE'LL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WITH THIS DESPITE THE INSTABILITY AS ANY ICE FORMATION
WOULD BE MINIMAL. REGARDLESS, WILL BE WATCHING THE WINDOW AS
THIS MOVES THROUGH INTO TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH, THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM, DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMAL AND
POSSIBLY SOME FRESH RAIN FROM THESE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. IF
THE FOG DOES FORM, IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING DUE
TO THE WARMER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. GOING THROUGH THE REST OF
SUNDAY, SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR/SUNNY WITH DEEP MIXING LIKELY BY
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO POTENTIALLY GUST
UP TO AROUND 20KTS WHEN PEAK MIXING OCCURS WHICH SHOULD ALSO
DROP THE DEW POINTS/RHS A BIT. WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 70S, WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR MIXING AND IF WE HAVE
SOME BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FUELS DON'T APPEAR TO BE
THERE/AN ISSUE THOUGH WITH GREEN UP COMPLETE.
HALBACH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
A WARMER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING TO AROUND +15C BY MONDAY AND STAYING THERE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO THE LATER PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 23.12Z GFS AND GEM RETROGRADES AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BACK SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH PUTS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE BACKSIDE, NE COLD AIR ADVECTION AREA OF
THE LOW. HOWEVER, THE 23.00Z EURO DOESN'T SHOW THIS OCCURRING
AND KEEPS US IN THE WARMTH.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY FOR ANY RAIN EXPECTED OVER THIS PERIOD AS
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IF THE 23.12Z GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT,
THERE COULD BE A CHANCE WHEN THE COLD FRONT/CAA KICKS IN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
HALBACH
AVIATION
ISSUED 714 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS (20 TO 50 PERCENT) SHOULD SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS BEFORE
EXITING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AS WELL INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS INTO TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW STATUS
CLOUDS DOWN TO 800 TO 1200 FEET AGL AND FOG OF 1 TO 4 MILES TO
PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING BACK OFFSHORE. NOT EXPECTING DENSE
FOG AT THIS TIME, THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
SEE IF LOWER VISIBILITY DEVELOPS. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG OF 3
TO 5 MILES FURTHER INLAND AS WELL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY,
WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODEST WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INLAND, WITH A SOUTHEAST LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR TERMINALS NEAR THE LAKE.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 714 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF LAKE ERIE HAS LEFT A WEAK WIND FIELD IN ITS WAKE AS
IT TRACKS TO THE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES, CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA, WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT EASTWARD ALONG WITH IT. THIS FRONT
SHOULD REACH EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND EXIT
BY LATE MORNING.
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE BY LATER THIS
EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. IT MAY LINGER FURTHER INTO
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS MILDER AIR MOVES OVER AND REMAINS
OVER THE COOLER LAKE WATERS.
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.2 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES, USHERING IN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
WHETHER A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY MIDWEEK.
HALBACH/WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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