797
FXUS63 KMKX 241835
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE ONLY PRECIPITATION COMING WITH A
CHANCE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING (MAINLY FURTHER WEST) AND A
WEAK CHANCE (25-35%) ON WEDNESDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. UPPER 80S TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 140 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SOME MOISTURE ALOFT WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS WELL AS A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TONIGHT, TOWARD CENTRAL MN. THESE WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CAMS
INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER, AS THIS PUSHES EAST IS WILL IMPINGE ON
DRIER AIR FOR MUCH OF THE COLUMN WITH DECREASING FORCING,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE LLJ. THUS IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY LINGER
PRECIP TO THE WEST WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INTO A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO THE EAST. PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE WESTERN CWA BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BY AROUND MADISON. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY QUIET REST OF THE DAY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI.
MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL START TO MOVE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SETUP WHICH WILL BRING US VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP IN THE MIDWEST REGION,
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A WARM FRONT TO HE NORTH. IF WE SEE ANY
PRECIP IT WOULD MOST LIKELY DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT
TIMEFRAME FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT
OF SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THESE TIMEFRAMES. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF THE 2 WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING
HIGH OVER THE UP MAY SHUNT THE WARM FRONT A TAD SOUTH ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY BRING IT INTO PLAY FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. CHANCES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIMITED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDLESS BUT A SLIGHT UPTICK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL DEFINITELY SUGGEST DRIER CONDITIONS AND THUS
ANYTHING TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE VERY FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEPENDENT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 140 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY IF WE SEE THE FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH
ENOUGH IT MAY VERY WELL INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI WITH THE DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE NORTH. IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED
THAT CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN UNFAVORABLE GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD HOWEVER, EVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
GREAT. I REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF WHAT LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING
FOR WEDNESDAY AS THIS IS A VERY DRY GENERAL ENVIRONMENTAL SIGNAL
WITH VERY LIMITED FORCING MECHANISMS AS WELL. BUT WEDNESDAY
DEFINITELY REMAINS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE WEEK FOR PRECIP AND
STORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAIN IN THE SAME UNDERLYING PATTERN WITH
LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVERHEAD AND STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR BOTH DAYS. INTO THE
WEEKEND CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN DRY BUT UNCERTAINTY WILL INCREASE
AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND BREAKS DOWN. CURRENTLY MODELS
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING
THE REGION DRY BUT GIVEN THE INCREASED MESSINESS OF FORCING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS IT MAKES FOR UNCERTAINTY AS IF THE HIGH BREAKS
DOWN THEN PRECIP MAY BECOME MUCH MORE LIKELY. THUS THE WEEKEND
WHILE CURRENTLY TRENDING DRIER HAS SOME CONCERN FOR PRECIP
CHANCES GIVEN UPPER LEVEL TRENDS.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 140 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING SOUTH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CLOUDS WILL COME IN TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN WI.
DRY AIR WILL DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY
MORNING BRING ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SOME DIURNAL CU COULD BE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY. CIGS
WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THOUGH. OTHERWISE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
TODAY THAT WOULD IMPACT NEARSHORE AREAS AND JUST INLAND WITH
EAST WINDS BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 140 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MODEST SOUTH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, LIGHTER TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS SOME FOG OVER THE LAKE MAY
DEVELOP BUT THE DRIER CONDITIONS MAY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF FOG. A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME ACROSS
SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE BASE OF THE HIGHER PRESSURE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST BUT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GENERAL REGION KEEPING PRECIPITATION MOSTLY AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE LAKE WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY BUT LIKELY DOESNT
PLAY AS MUCH A ROLE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTH (COLD FRONT) AS HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.1 INCHES DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKE REGION
THAT WILL BE CONNECTED WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.3 INCHES BUILDING TOWARD EASTERN HUDSON BAY.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN AND
PERHAPS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE LAKE WITH SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
LAKE MORE UNCERTAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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