436
FXUS63 KMKX 250614
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
114 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE AND ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR
CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
- WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT NEAR THE LAKE AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(AROUND 20 TO 50 PERCENT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 114 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS, IF IT MOVES ONSHORE
FROM THE LAKE. SEE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
THERE ARE MAINLY SMALL CHANCES (AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR WEAKENING
SHOWERS TO CLIP FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TO KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY THERE. CAMS SEEM TO
GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS, BUT SOME DO HAVE SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AS WELL IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY, WITH A SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MIDDLE 80S MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, TURNING COOLER NEAR THE
LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN, WITH A
SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF THE AREA, PERHAPS
REACHING 90 DEGREES IN SPOTS.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 114 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY TRY
TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. FOR NOW, KEPT 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THESE AREAS
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING CHANCES (20 TO 50
PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK
HEATING AND MEAN LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 800-PLUS J/KG. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK, SO WOULD EXPECT MAINLY PULSE-TYPE STORMS IN
AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD BRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
THERE. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR INLAND, THOUGH IT MAY BE TOUGHER FOR
THE FRONT TO PUSH THIS COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND BATTLE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO, SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGHS INLAND EXIST,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCK-LIKE
PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY,
WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND WELL TO THE WEST,
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA PER ENSEMBLE MEANS. THUS, IT APPEARS
TO BE A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES PER ENSEMBLE TRENDS.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 114 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
PATCHY FOG OR PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS, IF IT
MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE LAKE.
THERE ARE MAINLY SMALL CHANCES (AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR WEAKENING
SHOWERS TO CLIP FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 6000
FEET AGL AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY, WITH A
SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY,
WITH A SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 114 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE OVERNIGHT WILL BRING SOUTH WINDS. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS,
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDLE MORNING HOURS TODAY FOR THE
OPEN WATERS, AS WELL AS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE. PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY
OCCUR SOUTH OF THERE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH TO THE EAST TODAY, BUT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION MOSTLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. MAINLY SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS THE FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD EASTERN
HUDSON BAY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHTER WINDS LATER
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3
INCHES MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
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