473
FXUS63 KMKX 261125
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
625 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT NEAR THE LAKE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (AROUND
20 TO 40 PERCENT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- DRY FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S IS STILL
ON TRACK VIA SWLY WINDS, UPPER RIDGING, AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT OVER NRN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK WLY 850-300 MB FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THESE STORMS WILL PUSH SWD AND INITIATE ADDITONIAL STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER MQT, GREEN LAKE, FOND DU LAC, AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN DISSIPATE
FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 104 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST INTO TODAY. SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLIP
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD TODAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING NEAR THE
LAKE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST CLOSE TO THE LAKE BY MIDDLE
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE.
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA ARE SHOWING BUILDING
ELEVATED CAPE, BUT THE AREA IS CAPPED TO SURFACE PARCELS, AND
ANY ELEVATED UPWARD MOTION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. THUS, MOST CAMS SUGGEST THAT ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAIN TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT, AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENTIAL CVA PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TRYING TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG OR
MORE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA,
DROPPING QUICKLY AS THE EVENING AND NIGHT GOES ON.
FOR NOW, KEPT 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK, UNDER 20
KNOTS, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
TIME.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE EARLY
WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER INLAND AREAS LATER
IN THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE MEAN LAYER CAPE UP TO OR OVER 1000
J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AROUND 20
KNOTS OR SO. CAMS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP, AND THERE IS NOT MUCH BESIDES THE FRONT TO
BRING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND, THOUGH
THIS MAY DEPEND ON WHEN THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY END UP COOLER IF THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOONER. IT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S CLOSE TO THE
LAKE WITH THE INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE SHOULD
BE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
A MODERATE TO HIGH SWIM RISK MAY OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES, WITH INCREASING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 104 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND BRIEFLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BEFORE HIGHS REBOUND FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE LAKE EACH DAY. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS YET ANOTHER HIGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING STOUT OVER THE
REGION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA VIA 500
MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS TRENDS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING GRADUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES VIA ENSEMBLE
MEMBER TRENDS.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH WED AM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 104 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
30.4 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD EASTERN HUDSON BAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONT MAY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
ON FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 30.3 INCHES
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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