050
FXUS63 KMKX 261931
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED STORM (~20% CHANCE) IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TO
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE UNDER ANY CELL THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND IT NEAR THE LAKE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (AROUND
20 TO 40 PERCENT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
- DRY FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN, DRAPING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR UNDER 15 KT
SURFACE TO 500 MB WILL MEAN DECAYING STORMS WILL PRODUCE ANY
PROPAGATING MOTION. WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR HEATING AT THE SURFACE,
AND AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN, EXPECTING SBCAPE TO RISE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THIS DCAPE DOES
ARISE FROM EXTREMELY DRY MID LEVELS (~800-600 MB) AND A LACK OF
STRONG, CONSISTENT FORCING WILL LIKELY PREVENT STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING A STRONG UPDRAFT CORE AND THEREFORE WILL ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATION. THIS INDICATES THAT IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT
TO REALIZE THESE DCAPE VALUES IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEREFORE, NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS THIS EVENING, BUT A
BRIEFLY GUSTY STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM MARQUETTE TO SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS SAUK COUNTY THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL TO
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. AN ISOLATED SPOT OR TWO MAY SEE UP TO 90
DEGREES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
IN THE NEAR-LAKE REGIONS (GENERALLY ABOUT A HALF COUNTY INLAND).
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT AND NORTHERLY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPMENT, SO NO STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. FARTHER INLAND,
AS THE FRONTAL FEATURE MODIFIES AND SLOWS, THIS MAY CREATE A FOCAL
POINT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. 12Z CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, SO HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF POPS
INTO THE ISOLATED (~20-30% COVERAGE) CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES, BUT A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER 70% RH LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS THAN TODAY, AND AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FASTER/EARLIER IN THE
DAY, EXPECT LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT CONTINUED NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, LOW 70S ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE,
AND AROUND 80 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS BRINGING
LOWS IN THE 40S. FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS, ALLOWING FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN, AND AN AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE TO KEEP LAKE
MICHIGAN COUNTIES IN THE 70S. A WEAKER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND THE LOW 80S IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. SUNDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, ONCE AGAIN WITH THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LAKE BREEZES IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY, WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FT. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, AN
ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN, BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 20% CHANCE). SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME CALM AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY MID-MORNING TO AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT FROM JVL AND MSN
WESTWARD, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL EXIT INTO QUEBEC, KEEPING
SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
SHIFTS WINDS NORTHEASTERLY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THIS FRONT. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3
INCHES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHTER AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO
INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY, AN ADDITIONAL BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS
THEN WEAKEN AND REMAIN LIGHT AND PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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