789
FXUS63 KMKX 280005 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
705 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE AREA INTO EARLY EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANY STORM TOWARD NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDDLE TO LATE EVENING AS
THEY SAG SOUTHWARD.
- A HIGH SWIM RISK AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DUE TO DANGEROUS
CURRENTS FROM ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES.
UPDATE
ISSUED 705 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING,
ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
WITH ANY STORMS IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA, WHERE MEAN LAYER
CAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS RESIDE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
MIDDLE TO LATE EVENING AS IT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD, AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AFTER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS END AND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE BY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S,
WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM CDT, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ENHANCED BY THE COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS,
ALLOWING IT TO PRESS INLAND RAPIDLY THIS EVENING INTO CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL CIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL
THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD INHIBIT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THAT BEING SAID, ALMOST ALL MESO MODELS DO SHOW A CLUSTER OF
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT, AND A FEW OF THESE HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. IF THE FRONT
MOVES FASTER THAN THE DEVELOPING CIN, WE LIKELY SEE A BROKEN
LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS
THAT GROW TALL ENOUGH MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK ACROSS JUST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT SHOWERS THEN ENDING COMPLETELY BY
MIDNIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT,
GUSTING 20-25 MPH AND BRINGING LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 50S. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR RISING WAVES AND
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STAY OUT OF THE WATER, AND AWAY FROM
DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS!
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL LINGER
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH ALL WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
LAKE, EXPECTING LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO PERHAPS
80 DEGREES INLAND, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE
KETTLE MORAINE. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE
EXPECTED.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE BACK INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 70S ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT, AN ADDITIONAL
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWESTWARD, BRINGING A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS (NAM WITH A KNOWN MOISTURE BIAS BEING THE
CORE MODEL SHOWING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT) TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
SATURDAY, LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN
IN THE 70S, AND WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO RISE INTO
THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ALLOW
FOR LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF COOLING OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOW 50S
TO UPPER 40S. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTHWARD,
AN ADDITIONAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT LOW
CHANCES (~15%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY.
TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGS IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO EJECT.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 705 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING,
ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
WITH ANY STORMS NORTHWEST OF MADISON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDDLE TO LATE EVENING AS IT SAGS FURTHER
SOUTHWARD, AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHEBOYGAN AND MADISON FOR A THUNDERSTORM
WITH BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY UNTIL MIDDLE EVENING, THOUGH
NOT SURE IF THESE SITES WILL BE AFFECTED. KEPT MENTION OUT OF
REST OF TERMINALS FOR NOW, AS NOT CONFIDENT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REACH THE REST OF THE AREA.
AFTER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS END AND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE BY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES AND WINDS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT IN NEARSHORE WATERS, WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DIMINISHING MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL WEAK
COLD FRONTS BRINGING BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM
THURSDAY.
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