414
FXUS63 KMKX 061134 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
634 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST WI THIS AFTERNOON.
- A VERY HUMID AIRMASS WILL RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 634 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHWEST WI DISSIPATED JUST
BEFORE THEY REACHED THE IL BORDER. DESPITE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT BEING SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER, OUR
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TODAY, BUT WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, IT IS GOING TO FEEL VERY WARM AND
HUMID TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIGHT WINDS.
WE SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY DUE TO THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS. THEY SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
AREA IN SOUTHEAST WI THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THEM.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 104 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE EAST-WEST BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND EXIT SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM. THERE IS ONE
AREA OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING BETWEEN LA CROSSE
AND WISCONSIN DELLS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK EDGE OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. THE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THAT FEATURE WILL HELP WHATEVER ONGOING
STORMS PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN IL AROUND DAYBREAK. THE MAIN
THING WE NEED TO WATCH OVERNIGHT IS FOR TRAINING STORMS. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES, THE STORMS ARE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
(TODAY). WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WE WILL
STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. THE LAKESHORE WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM FROM THE HEAT
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE, BUT THE LAKE BREEZE IS NOT
GOING TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND UNTIL THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI SAT NT AS
DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES IN.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE OVER TEXAS TODAY WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE POSITION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DRAW MOISTURE UP FROM THE
GULF AND WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN WI ON MONDAY. THEY SHOULD SPREAD IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EXIT MONDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS WEAK UPPER
LOW HAS UNCERTAINTY. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN.
THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY,
GIVEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH, BUT THE OVERALL SYSTEM
LACKS THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR A BIGGER SEVERE EVENT.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 104 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT 500
MB SHORTWAVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
(20-30% CHANCES). MEANWHILE, STIFF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A WARM, HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING ALL THE WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY, LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
BRINGS AN OCCLUDED WARM FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS
A POTENTIAL TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON (~35%), WHICH MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS
DRAMATICALLY AS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED AS SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BRING IN PLENTY OF WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (20-35%) AS WINDS
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND BRING IN UPPER 60S FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY RISING INTO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME (15-20%). FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS. MODEL DISCREPANCY DEVELOPS AS TO THE PATH THIS LOW TAKES,
BUT EITHER SOLUTION (NORTHERN WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LESS WARMING, SOUTHERN WOULD RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN) WOULD LEAD TO A RESPITE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IN THE MID-80S.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 634 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN WI TODAY, EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. THE BASES MAY
BEGIN WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR AROUND 2500FT IN FAR SOUTHERN
WI BUT QUICKLY BECOME VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CLOUDS MAY
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 634 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ONTARIO THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER
THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A LIGHT WIND
REGIME AND CAUSE AREAS OF FOG THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH HALF. FOG MAY RETURN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH STRENGTHENS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT PLAINS
MONDAY, BRINGING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 UNTIL 1 PM
SATURDAY.
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