042
FXUS63 KMKX 091852
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
152 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
- FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. MARINE DENSE FOG
IS ALSO LIKELY.
- A HIGH SWIM RISK IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY, AND
SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED AT SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE BEACHES.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY IF WE
GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 152 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
A REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE, DAYTIME HEATING FROM BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS, AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM THE
MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT, THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FEATURE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE IT
MAY BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH TOMORROW. LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF A LINE OF
STORMS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD TRACK
INTO WI. MODELS VARY ON COVERAGE, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL WI FROM
5AM TO 10AM WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED, AND
FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM, MUCAPE OF 2500 J/KG, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE 30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR THAT
WILL BE PRESENT.
MODELS THEN VARY WILDLY WITH WHAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE CONSTANT SEEMS TO BE THAT THERE WILL BE A LINE OF STORMS
THAT COMES THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
IN BETWEEN THE MORNING ROUND AND EVENING ROUND HOWEVER, TWO
THINGS COULD HAPPEN. ANOTHER AFTERNOON ROUND LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN
MOST OF THE CAMS ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
LINE WOULD THEN TRACK EAST AND EXIT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FORM 4 TO
6 PM. SOME MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS ROUND HOWEVER, WHICH
INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. RIGHT NOW, THE
AFTERNOON ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SCENARIO LOOKS MOST LIKELY,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY, BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGHER ALL HAZARDS THREAT FOR THE STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON, GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE CAPE OF 4000 J/KG IN RAP AND
HRRR SOUNDINGS AND GOOD LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS.
WEDNESDAY EVENINGS ROUND OF STORMS WOULD THEN PRIMARILY FEATURE
A WIND THREAT GIVEN SHEAR WOULD BE MORE BOUNDARY PARALLEL DURING
THIS TIME.
THURSDAY'S STORM THREAT THEN DEPENDS UPON WHERE ANY REMNANT
BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER WEDNESDAY'S STORMS. SOME OF THE CAMS
THAT ARE IN RANGE OF THURSDAY SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER DAY WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS MAY OCCUR WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS POSSIBLE. BUT THE DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN REMAIN MURKY
GIVEN WEDNESDAY HASN'T PLAYED OUT YET. EARLY INDICATIONS FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGH ONSHORE
WAVES TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES. A HIGH SWIM RISK HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS. SWIMMING IS
NOT ADVISED DURING THIS TIME.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 152 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
LIGHT TO MODEST WLY SURFACE WINDS, DRY WEATHER, AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THU NT.
OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS TO FALL ESPECIALLY
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
A WEAK TROUGH IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SAT AFTERNOON AND PASS SAT NT. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION, BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS IN THAT LAYER WILL
SUPPORT 40-60 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUN-MON BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MAY BRING 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
30-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST FOR TUE
AS A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI-SAT THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 152 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE REGION WITH MVFR CIGS. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, INSTABLITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN WI.
TONIGHT FOG MAY BECOME DENSE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THEN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO TOMORROW EVENING. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, BECOMING BREEZY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 152 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MARINE DENSE FOG CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS PROJECT THIS FOG TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN PREEMPTIVELY ISSUED FOR THE FOG POTENTIAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
LIGHT GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
OVER THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT CDT AND FLIPS WINDS AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.3 INCHES
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WINDS MAY BECOME
MODERATELY BREEZY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING..
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH SOME STRONG STORMS FAVORED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WINDS COME AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH WINDS THEN RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, WITH ADDITONAL STORMS
POSSIBLE.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10
AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
THURSDAY.
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