131
FXUS63 KMKX 100610
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
110 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID-MORNING TODAY, WITH
LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY IF STORMS FORM. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOW END WITH THIS STORM POTENTIAL.
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
MID-MORNING TODAY. MARINE DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE
LAKE.
- A HIGH SWIM RISK IS IN EFFECT MID AFTERNOON TODAY INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY, AND
SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED AT SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE BEACHES.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 110 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TODAY GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY CHILLY WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
SHOWERS KEEP TRYING TO FORM TONIGHT JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A
COUPLE MODELS THAT TRY TO POP A FEW STORMS AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES
IN. PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL IF STORMS DO FIRE.
STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA AND INTO
THE DAKOTAS EARLY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE, STAYING MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
SHORTWAVE. THESE STORMS COULD CLIP THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 11 AM, THOUGH LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO LARGELY KEEP THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR STORMS TODAY SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO A WAVE AND
VORT MAX EXITING THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA. ANY MORNING STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR A
DECENT RECOVERY PERIOD LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR, SO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FORCING MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. LARGE HAIL
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY IS GETTING
GOING. 0-3 KM SHEAR ISN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG (25-30 KT), BUT
LOOKS LARGELY PERPENDICULAR TO THE EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS, SO A
QLCS TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EAST
BY 6 PM, WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING, THOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT LESS IF THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF STORMS ROLLS THROUGH AS
EXPECTED.
GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS AND CLOUDS LIKELY TODAY, NOT
EXPECTING ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PUSH HEAT INDICES UP TOWARDS 100
DEGREES AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT POSSIBLE. WHILE IT WILL BE QUITE
WARM AND HUMID, WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE TROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ALSO
SWING THROUGH BY MID-EVENING. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
SUCH THAT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF TIME TO DESTABILIZE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES THROUGH. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT LIFTING THROUGH BY LATE
MORNING WHICH COULD MUDDY THINGS UP A LITTLE. OVERALL THOUGH,
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PLENTY AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS BASED ON INSTABILITY FIELDS, THOUGH THINGS HAVE
SHIFTED A BIT NORTHWARD COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN CURRENT
EXPECTED TIMING, STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID-EVENING, WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 110 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTED LOW AND
FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE LOWER AS WELL, LIKELY SETTLING INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES.
IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BRING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM TO AT LEAST 80 AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE LOW 60S. SEEING ENOUGH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE 00Z MODELS TO THINK THAT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. COULD SEE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 110 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE ONGOING STORMS TO THE WEST
POSSIBLY CLIPPING AREAS NORTH OF I-94 AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY MAY STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MAIN ROUND OF STORMS TODAY, WITH THE
TIMING TRENDING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF STORMS DEVELOP
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED, 18Z-23Z WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WON'T MOVE
THROUGH UNTIL MID TO LATE EVENING THOUGH, SO ADDITIONAL STORMS
CHANCES WOULD LINGER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AND BREEZY BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 110 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
MARINE DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH AN ADVISORY IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE LAKE UNTIL MID-MORNING TODAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.3 INCHES
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WINDS MAY BECOME
MODERATELY BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE AT TIMES TODAY, WITH
SOME STRONG STORMS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS COME AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
WINDS THEN RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
THURSDAY.
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