422
FXUS63 KMKX 101111 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
611 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IN SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID MORNING. MARINE DENSE FOG WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY.
- A HIGH SWIM RISK IS IN EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY,
AND SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED AT SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE BEACHES.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE EARLY MORNING STORMS DID NOT MATERIALIZE. WE ONLY HAD A THIN
STRIPE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN WI WITH THE
WARM FRONT.
THE FOG DEVELOPED, THOUGH. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EASTERN
COUNTIES IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM. WE WILL WATCH FOR THE NEED
FOR ANY LOCAL EXTENSIONS. WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING IMPROVEMENT AND SOME
OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING ON SATELLITE IS ACTUALLY STRATUS.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT WE ARE WATCHING TO BRING OUR MIDDAY-AFTERNOON
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS. SINCE
WE DID NOT HAVE CONVECTION THIS MORNING, OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
PRIMED FOR SEVERE STORMS, LIKELY WITH OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND
30 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THIS WILL PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. WIND AND HAIL ARE THE HIGHEST RISKS. TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO 25KT 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS, BUT OVERALL 0-3KM HELICITY
IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE MORNING CLOUDS MAY HINDER SOME OF OUR
INSTABILITY IN THE EAST, SO WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN
THERE.
IF THERE IS ANY AREA THAT DOES NOT GET THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON
STORMS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE BETTER-PRIMED FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 110 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TODAY GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY CHILLY WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
SHOWERS KEEP TRYING TO FORM TONIGHT JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A
COUPLE MODELS THAT TRY TO POP A FEW STORMS AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES
IN. PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL IF STORMS DO FIRE.
STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA AND INTO
THE DAKOTAS EARLY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE, STAYING MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
SHORTWAVE. THESE STORMS COULD CLIP THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 11 AM, THOUGH LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO LARGELY KEEP THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR STORMS TODAY SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO A WAVE AND
VORT MAX EXITING THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA. ANY MORNING STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR A
DECENT RECOVERY PERIOD LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR, SO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FORCING MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. LARGE HAIL
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY IS GETTING
GOING. 0-3 KM SHEAR ISN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG (25-30 KT), BUT
LOOKS LARGELY PERPENDICULAR TO THE EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS, SO A
QLCS TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EAST
BY 6 PM, WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING, THOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT LESS IF THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF STORMS ROLLS THROUGH AS
EXPECTED.
GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS AND CLOUDS LIKELY TODAY, NOT
EXPECTING ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PUSH HEAT INDICES UP TOWARDS 100
DEGREES AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT POSSIBLE. WHILE IT WILL BE QUITE
WARM AND HUMID, WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE TROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ALSO
SWING THROUGH BY MID-EVENING. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
SUCH THAT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF TIME TO DESTABILIZE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES THROUGH. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT LIFTING THROUGH BY LATE
MORNING WHICH COULD MUDDY THINGS UP A LITTLE. OVERALL THOUGH,
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PLENTY AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS BASED ON INSTABILITY FIELDS, THOUGH THINGS HAVE
SHIFTED A BIT NORTHWARD COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN CURRENT
EXPECTED TIMING, STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID-EVENING, WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 110 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTED LOW AND
FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE LOWER AS WELL, LIKELY SETTLING INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES.
IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BRING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM TO AT LEAST 80 AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE LOW 60S. SEEING ENOUGH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE 00Z MODELS TO THINK THAT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. COULD SEE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MID
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. ONCE THE MARINE-INFLUENCED
LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE, EXPECT VFR UNTIL STORMS ROLL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE
INTO A LINE AND SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING. ANY STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES.
A POCKET OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WHOLE LAKE UNTIL
MID- MORNING, BUT I AM GOING TO EXTEND IT IN THE NORTH.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH HALF
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE LAKE BY LATE MORNING AND
FLIPS WINDS AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL THEN
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WINDS MAY BECOME MODERATELY BREEZY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME STRONG
STORMS FAVORED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WINDS COME AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH WINDS THEN RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ071-
WIZ072 UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
THURSDAY.
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