793
FXUS63 KMKX 120110
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
810 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (60-90% CHANCE).
UPDATE
ISSUED 810 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
TODAY'S SEVERE STORM AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT HAS ENDED, JUST A
FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS OVER EASTERN WI AT THE MOMENT, WHICH
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MI SHORTLY.
SOME MUCH-NEEDED QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 151 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY:
A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THE MESOSCALE
IS INTERESTING, BUT QUITE MESSY FOR A NUMBER OF FACTORS.
THE FIRST CHALLENGE IS THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
HAS OVERTURNED OUR AIRMASS A BIT AND CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE SUFFERING. THAT SAID, WE DO HAVE A
SOLID MID LEVEL WAVE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS IS MORE SPRING LIKE
FORCING, WHICH CAN LEAD TO RAPID LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND
INSTABILITY RECOVERY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL AT
LEAST GIVE IT A TRY AS FORCING MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE (VERY LARGE EFFECTIVE LOW
LEVEL HELICITY) IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH STORM ORGANIZATION TO
POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO RISK.
AT THE MOMENT WE ARE TARGETING COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE WI/IL
STATE LINE FOR THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL IF LOW LEVEL RECOVERY
OCCURS AND INSTABILITY RESPONDS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA, ANY
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WILL POSE A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
RISK.
FINALLY, THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER
HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE, BUT URBAN AND SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RATES.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE
EXPECTED.
GAGAN
LONG TERM
ISSUED 151 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES DURING
THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT AND FORCING HAS BEEN LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF MODELS. THAT SAID, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST MUCAPE PROFILES AND INCREASING
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS.
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN QUIETER
WEATHER, WITH A SIZABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND A FEW
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MODEL AGREEMENT TOWARD A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
GAGAN
AVIATION
ISSUED 800 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
LINGERING LIGHT RAINSHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
WI WILL PUSH EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO,
LEAVING DRY WEATHER IN IT'S WAKE. SOME MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE
MOVED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORMS; THESE SHOULD PERSIST FOR
ROUGHLY 2 HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND RESTORING VFR.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING, WITH BREEZY WNW WINDS WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT (A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE). WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY AND
SUBSIDE SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY AND RE-OBTAIN SOME 20-25KT GUSTS.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 151 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES MOVES FROM EASTERN
IOWA TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY EVENING. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND BREEZY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS AND ELEVATED WAVES. HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN.
GAGAN
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FLOOD WATCH...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-
WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 11 PM
THURSDAY.
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