748
FXUS63 KMKX 140454
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE WI AND FAR SRN
WI EARLY SUN AM. COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK. TOO EARLY TO TELL INTENSITY, BUT MONITORING FOR
POTENTIAL STRONGER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES OF 70-90 PERCENT BOTH
DAYS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED AND WED NT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
WEAK 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN WI
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
DAKOTAS DOES NOT MOVE ACROSS SRN WI UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUN. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT. NWLY SFC WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SUN AM
AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND LAST INTO MID AFTERNOON.
THUS HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S ARE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO WLY FOR SUN NT-MON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CANADA.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
FOR THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS ON TUE AND WED. A AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MON NT-TUE AM,
WHILE A WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH MOVES FROM CANADA INTO MN AND
NRN WI. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE INTO EAST CENTRAL WI TOWARD 00Z
WED WITH A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SRN WI IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIS OF -3 TO -6C ARE FORECAST VIA COLD AIR ALOFT, WITH A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
A FAST MOVING POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT PLAINS TO SRN WI WED-WED NT, WITH THE SFC
LOW TO TRACK FROM IA ON WED TO ALONG THE WI AND IL BORDER WED
EVENING. A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP
OVER SRN WI WITH WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TNT-SUN NT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
TNT. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGH
CLOUD BASES. BKN040 STRATOCUMULUS TO THEN DEVELOP FOR LATE SUN
AM AND LAST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND LOW PRESSURE OF 29.7 INCHES PROGRESSES SOUTH FROM CANADA.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN CROSSES NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHIFTING VARIABLE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE
AREAS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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